Caleb Bond: Pundits reckon Labor will romp it in, but I’m not so sure

The polls say the Liberals are about to become one-term wonders but Caleb Bond wonders whether independents might not be the real threat to Steven Marshall’s government.

While polling would suggest Labor is going to romp it in on Saturday, I’m not so sure.

A two-party result of 56 per cent to 44 per cent would be an extraordinary repudiation of the first-term Liberal government led by Steven Marshall.

But while it is not beyond the realms of possibility, I fail to see that anger towards the government would run that deep.

There are plenty of things this government has done wrong, including its sometimes heavy-handed and inhumane response to Covid-19.

Or perhaps, more to the point, the fact it handed complete control to unelected people.

The real problem for Marshall, though, will be independents. A hung parliament is a live option – the one I believe is most likely – and that was how Marshall missed out on becoming premier in 2014.

The biggest threat in 2018 was the might of Nick Xenophon and his SA Best party, but having spread himself too thin he was unable to secure a single lower-house seat.

Had be picked up three or four, he would likely have been kingmaker.

But this time, there are a gaggle of independents who could easily find themselves deciding the next South Australian government.

Former Premier Jay Weatherill, former SA Best leader Nick Xenophon and Premier Steven Marshall during a 2018 leaders debate. Picture: Tracey Nearmy

Troy Bell will no doubt again win Mt Gambier as an independent.

Dan Cregan is expected to retain Kavel in the Adelaide Hills, as is Fraser Ellis in Narungga on the Yorke Peninsula. The local farmers have been telling everyone to back Ellis rather than the Liberal candidate.

Sam Duluk is a chance of retaining Waite. And despite what the bookies are saying about Frances Bedford in Newland (the odds were about $4.50 on Thursday, if you’re inclined to have a flutter) you’d be silly to rule her out.

Bedford is a consummate local member who knows how to work her constituency – which is now back to her heartland of Modbury – and she will command a loyalty vote from people of all political persuasions.

Even if she doesn’t win, she will likely help secure a Labor victory in that seat.

So you may have at least three independents and possibly five to deal with.

That would leave the parliament in a similar position to the one in which it is currently – with a minority government.

The government currently has 22 seats. It needs at least 24 to win outright. Marshall is apparently convinced they can gain seats, but where is beyond me.

They should knock off Geoff Brock in Stuart and then pick up his old seat of Frome. Waite is also a chance of being taken back into Liberal hands from Duluk.

Independent Waite MP Sam Duluk. Picture: Tait Schmaal.

That may deliver the magical 24 seats – but then they face the possibility of losing a slew of marginals including Adelaide, Newland and King.

Labor, meanwhile, needs an extra five seats to form government. It has a good chance of winning Adelaide, King and Newland. Elder is a possibility. But without some massive swings elsewhere, I think it will struggle to pick up the five required seats.

Even if the government manages to hang on to its northeastern marginals, it will have to take back Waite to win.

So, if you believe my analysis, a hung parliament is highly likely. Which brings us to the art of forming minority government – spending lots of money (or at least promising to do so).

Jay Weatherill completely outsmarted Marshall in 2014. After a week of both leaders trying to persuade Brock to give his support, Weatherill finally got in the car and drove to Port Pirie to famously eat a Hawaiian kahuna pizza with him at the A1 Pizza shop.

And thus the deal was done.

Marshall, meanwhile, was still in town unawares – with Martin Hamilton-Smith just two months away from jumping ship to the crossbench and accepting a ministry in the Labor government.

The Liberals hardly secured a convincing victory in 2018, either, winning by just two seats. We all know what has happened since then.

Unfortunately for Marshall, Labor has historically been better at playing politics in SA. It is a well-oiled machine that understands strategy and when to deploy it.

There’s a reason Labor was in power for 16 years and could very well be in power again by Monday morning.

It saw the possibility of a hung parliament coming a long time ago. This is why it has been promising money in independent-held seats for months.

Mount Gambier MP Troy Bell may find himself a kingmaker. Picture: Emma Brasier

In Mt Gambier alone, Opposition Leader Peter Malinauskas has promised $35m for a technical college (announced in November), $24m to upgrade Mt Gambier Hospital (announced in January), $15m for a forestry “centre of excellence”, and $5m for Mt Gambier TAFE (both announced this month).

The promise of a new $220m hospital in Mt Barker was another clear play to win the favour of Cregan in Kavel.

The one good thing about having an independent MP is that, if a prospective government needs their support, they can milk them for all they’re worth.

Should a hung parliament come to being, Marshall will have to be markedly shrewder than he was four years ago. The number of seats between Labor and Liberal, in the event of a hung parliament, will be close to even and history would dictate that it puts Labor in the box seat to form government.

The current independent crop – predominantly made up of ex-Libs – has not been afraid to do the Liberals over, as evidenced by the installation of Cregan as Speaker.

Don’t believe the bristling confidence of anyone – Labor or Liberal – that they have the election stitched up. Malinauskas has wisely told his troops to maintain cautious optimism because getting ahead of themselves could be a disaster.

The government is on the nose. But I do not think this will be the bloodbath some are predicting. And in some ways, that could be even worse for the Liberals.