2026 SA state election: Premier Peter Malinauskas in dominant position after Dunstan poll

Opponents are hoping voters find Premier Peter Malinauskas too cocky as he looks impregnable ahead of the next election, writes Paul Starick.

It will take something like an almighty scandal, world-changing event, financial disaster or epic blunder to stop the Peter Malinauskas-led Labor winning the next election.

This is the key lesson from the Dunstan by-election result, confirmed on Wednesday night, which handed Labor a thumping 28-14 lower house majority.

This is an even worse position for the Liberal Opposition than after the worst election result in their history, in 2006, when the ALP won 28 seats and the Liberals 15.

Less than two years out from the next state poll, even a significant number of Liberals have given up on Opposition Leader David Speirs and consider him a dead man walking in the role.

Mr Speirs has two assets keeping him in the job, at least for now.

These are an indefatigable competitive spirit and an absence of any clear alternative leader. There is speculation about a so-called “dream team” of Mr Speirs’ almost-inevitable replacement, Ashton Hurn, and newly installed backbencher Jack Batty, taking over a year out from the next election, on March 21, 2026.

Opposition Leader David Speirs and Liberal health spokeswoman Ashton Hurn. Picture: Dean Martin

But this is likely wishful thinking from some Liberal MPs and supporters, some of whom have resigned themselves to waiting for the public to turn on Mr Malinauskas for displaying excessive hubris.

This passive plan might not be too foolish. After the 2006 landslide, Mike Rann-led Labor became arrogant in office and voters turned on key ministers in safe seats at the 2010 election, almost unseating the government.

Mr Malinauskas, though, is acutely aware of this chequered history. After all, he fronted Mr Rann in 2011 as a 30-year-old union and factional chief to knife him as premier, recognising the election swing against Labor had irreparably damaged his leadership.

Premier Peter Malinauskas and Labor candidate for Dunstan Cressida O'Hanlon have a coffee in Norwood on Thursday after claiming victory in the Dunstan by-election. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Kelly Barnes

Asked by The Advertiser on Thursday if his government’s 28-14 seat majority meant he was concerned about arrogance creeping into his troops, Mr Malinauskas bluntly replied: “That is something that won’t be tolerated.

“I think in politics, you’ve got a degree of confidence about your ability to take on the challenges that are before you but I won’t be tolerating for one moment anyone that sort of allows themselves to get too far ahead of themselves.”

Another lesson from Dunstan is that voters are forgiving Mr Malinauskas for failing to meet his core 2022 election promise to fix the ambulance ramping crisis, even if it has worsened to record levels in the two years of his government.

The fallout has been reduced by the ALP campaign machine, party structure and internal discipline being far more professional, adroit and ruthless than the Liberals.

Labor saw a surge in Green support coming – it wasn’t hard after the 2022 by-election in neighbouring Bragg. But the Liberals didn’t attack the Greens until two days out from the March 23 poll date. Labor harvested Greens preferences, enabling victory despite the Liberal primary vote of more than 43 per cent.

Greens state co-leader Robert Simms and Dunstan candidate Katie McCusker. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Morgan Sette

The teal independent movement, which dislodged a swag of Liberals in blue-ribbon seats at the 2022 federal election, seized on the Dunstan result and his hosting its “first community event” in SA on April 17.

This poses a more immediate threat in Sturt, at next year’s federal election, but is indicative of the geographic electoral pressure being heaped on the Liberals at a state level.

Just as Green preferences put them under threat from Labor in inner-city strongholds, the Liberals have lost seats to independents outside Adelaide and are leaking support to Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.

This makes it hard to chart a pathway to victory on the state electoral map for Mr Speirs, or whoever happens to be leader in early 2026.

A lot can happen between now and then, though. Mr Malinauskas’s surge to power proves that. A year out from the 2022 election, he was struggling for traction against Steven Marshall, whose profile had been elevated by his popular handling of the Covid pandemic. Then Covid flooded SA, Mr Marshall floundered and his rival swept to power in a landslide.

Perhaps there is some hope for the Liberals – and even the embattled Mr Speirs – after all.