How Mackay quiet Australian voters have swung elections

Hardworking Aussies near two Mackay polling booths say they are so dissatisfied with the two major parties, they are looking at alternatives going into this Federal Election.

Mackay’s quiet Australians have broken their silence and found their voice as the region’s ‘health crisis’ and cost-of-living pressures weigh on the electorate.

With polls and money markets pointing to a Labor victory in May, it is voters such as Joanne Day, Tracey Haines and Rosy Blair who may well sink the government.

All three spoke about their aspirations near the inner-city Mackay Central and Mackay West polling booths, two of the nation’s 105 ‘bellwether’ booths whose first preference votes have accurately predicted the winning government at every election in the past 20 years.

When Prime Minister Scott Morrison snatched a victory at the 2019 election, he told adoring supporters how “quiet Australians” had delivered the Coalition into government.

“It has been those Australians who have worked hard everyday, they have their dreams, they have their aspirations … These are the quiet Australians who have won a great victory tonight,” Mr Morrison said on May 18, 2019.

To find where the “quiet Australians” live, those who seemingly deliver governments to power, News Corp analysed polling booth data across all electorates between 2004 and 2019.

Mrs Day, shopping with her daughter at the IGA on Bridge Rd, voted for the Coalition government at the 2019 election, but her mind has shifted.

She listed what she saw as Mackay’s health “crisis” as the chief reason she was looking for other options.

“I don’t think they (the government) are taking the health crisis as seriously as it should be taken,” she said.

“I mean the things like the ambulance ramping, the amount that people get back for bulk billing.

“It’s hard to find a bulk billing doctor here in Mackay.”

Mrs Day has an auto-immune condition that has pushed her out of the job market.

Previously, she worked as a casual domestic cleaner.

Now, she lives off a disability support pension of about $1000 a fortnight.

Her husband is also disabled and unemployed.

“I had to give up the job entirely,” she said.

“It’s really taken a big hit to the budget.

“A lot of the freedoms I had before are no longer available to me.”

“I don’t have access to the specialist here, so I’ve got to travel to Brisbane to see my specialist.

“We used to have specialists that come to Mackay, but we don’t anymore.”

She said the government’s failure in healthcare was two-fold – money and imagination.

“They haven’t put enough money into it, but they also haven’t really thought about the direction it’s going to take,” she said.

“They may have ascertained what it is now, but they’re not looking at what the future is going to hold.”

When asked which other party might snatch up her vote, Mrs Day said she had yet to make up her mind.

“I’ll look at what they’re going to promise and then take a stab in the dark as to who is actually going to follow through with it,” she said.

Alongside healthcare concerns, Dawson’s voters are suffering through a punishing rental market.

There are some 1600 jobs available across the Mackay region, but with a rental vacancy rate of just 0.6 per cent, there are few affordable housing options for workers and families.

The tight market is in part a response to a booming coal price and the flow-on ‘coal rush’ in the Bowen Basin.

In January this year, hard coking coal prices hit a historic high of $549 per tonne.

In 2021, the ABS valued Australia’s thermal and metallurgical coal exports at $63bn.

Ms Haines, a long-time LNP voter who lives on Nelson St near Mackay Central State School, said she was “considering a change” to Labor.

“Just with what’s been going on lately,” she explained.

“I really am very disappointed with politics to be honest, even at a state level.

“I just think there’s too much backstabbing going on.

“I think we’ve had Liberal for a while now and there’s not been much change going on so I think maybe it’s time for a bit of a change.”

When asked whether she believed Anthony Albanese might improve the country and deliver the changes she wanted, Ms Haines said she was not sure.

Rosy Blair, a ‘lollipop lady’ at Mackay West State School, grew up on a farm and has spent her life as a Nationals voter.

This time around, she’s taking a look at Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.

“We should rely a little bit more on Australia’s heritage and background,” she said.

Ms Blair said the past two years of Covid had demonstrated the importance of self-reliance and the dangers of off-shoring.

“It’s given a fairly clear perspective, how much we as Australia are self-supporting – we’re not used to our full potential,” she said.

“We should have concentrated on keeping more in Australia.

“Australia is a beautiful country and we have a lot to offer and I don’t think it is used to its potential.”

Palmer’s UAP advertisements have grabbed her attention, but she is not certain she will ‘go over’ to the UAP.

She said she admired how the government handled the Covid crisis and remained broadly supportive of the Nationals.

“At this stage, I just want to see where it goes, if you know what I mean?”

Voters across the seat of Dawson moved heavily towards the LNP in 2019 and even if Mackay’s swing voters of 2022 echo a larger national mood, the electorate looks set to stay in with the Nationals.

Retiring MP George Christensen nabbed 65 per cent of the vote after preferences on the back of a massive 11.2 per cent swing in his favour in 2019.

Mackay West and Mackay Central reflected the mood across regional Queensland.

Labor’s candidate, Belinda Hassan, secured 336 first preference votes at Mackay West, a negative 11.15 per cent swing.

At Mackay Central, she secured 285 first preference votes, a negative 10.8 per cent swing.

Mr Christensen recorded positive swings of about 1 per cent across Mackay Central and Mackay West.

One Nation’s Deb Lawson, who also took a tilt at the 2020 Queensland State Election, nabbed the biggest swings of the night and established the party’s place as the most popular minor party.

She got 10.6 per cent of the vote at Mackay Central and 13.4 per cent at Mackay West.

UAP candidate Colin Thompson secured 4.2 per cent of first preference votes at Mackay West and 3.7 per cent at Mackay Central.

Originally published as How Mackay quiet Australian voters have swung elections