Paul Starick analysis — major parties will ignore South Australia at their peril in federal election

Unlike some previous elections, South Australia will not be centre stage for the campaign but will have an important secondary role that the major parties ignore at their peril.

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Unlike some previous elections, South Australia will not be centre stage for the campaign but will still have an important secondary role that the major parties ignore at their peril.

The simple law of numbers dictates that, with only one seat considered in play, Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will focus their attention on the eastern seaboard.

There will be a handful of visits from the major party leaders, most likely on their way to and from the more important battleground of Western Australia.

Unfortunately, the state’s declining electoral importance is reflected in a redistribution which, for this poll, has reduced the number of SA federal seats from 11 to 10. But there are some seats which, in a tight race, might become quite important.

Labor’s chief target in SA is the Liberal-held seat of Boothby, which has been made marginal by an electoral redistribution. Nicolle Flint holds the southern Adelaide electorate by 2.8 per cent.

The other key contests will be in Mayo, where Liberal Georgina Downer is putting her family dynasty on the line by again taking on the Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie, and in Sturt, where Premier Steven Marshall’s former chief of staff, James Stevens, hopes to replace his mentor, the long-serving Christopher Pyne.

The implosion of former Senate powerbroker Nick Xenophon’s political career at last year’s state election has opened up the upper house race in SA. His party has morphed into the Centre Alliance and, without the personal appeal he mustered at previous elections, the party faces a challenge to revive the Senate career of candidate Skye Kakoschke-Moore.

Numbers in the Senate will again be critical, whichever side is elected, so both Liberal and Labor will want to capture a spot once held by a minor party.

Similarly, the Coalition cannot afford to sideline any seats and will need to pump resources into Boothby in a bid to offset expected losses, particularly in Victoria.

Despite this attention, SA is not the important battleground that it was during John Howard’s government. Back then, SA had five marginal seats and four senior Cabinet ministers, so had a disproportionate voice in his government.

Mr Pyne, a powerful force, mustered great influence within the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison governments. But he is retiring, posing a significant challenge for the Liberals even if re-elected.

Labor, with four South Australians in shadow Cabinet, has a more powerful argument about state influence in Canberra. Three of these – Penny Wong, Mark Butler and Don Farrell – are in senior roles and have ministerial experience.

In the chief battleground of Boothby, both major parties already have invested cash promises and high-profile visits.

Last month, Mr Morrison and Premier Steven Marshall joined Ms Flint at the intersection of Fullarton and Cross roads, into which the Federal Government will plough $61 million for an upgrade.

Also last month, Mr Shorten joined Boothby candidate Nadia Clancy to vow, if elected, to spend $20 million to fix the notorious intersection of Springbank, Daws and Goodwood roads.

With a large population of older people, Boothby is ripe for a Liberal scare campaign about a Labor “retiree tax”, based on the party’s dividend imputation proposal.

On other fronts, two races carry great significance for the Liberals.

In Mayo, Ms Downer is hoping to overcome a 55-45 per cent defeat by Ms Sharkie at a by-election in July last year.

Having failed to win preselection in the blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Goldstein in 2016, Ms Downer is unlikely to get another chance at a lower house seat if she cannot win Mayo this time. Her family dynasty — dating back to 1885 when her great-grandfather Sir John Downer was first SA Premier — then likely would be reliant on the Liberals handing her a Senate spot.

In Sturt, Mr Stevens is seeking to harness the personal support of the man whose campaign he managed for the past four elections, Mr Pyne. He has held the seat since 1993.

This means Labor’s Cressida O’Hanlon, who experienced party strategists rate highly, is a chance to become the first ALP member for the eastern Adelaide seat since 1972.

Originally published as Paul Starick analysis — major parties will ignore South Australia at their peril in federal election