‘Extremists’: How Sydney church stabbing affects Australia’s terror threat level

Experts explain how violent attacks, including the church stabbing in Sydney, impact the status of the nation’s terror threat level.

Australia’s National Terrorism Threat Level is unlikely to be lifted on the back of Sydney’s ghastly church stabbing.

Terrorism experts say the current threat level of “possible” reinforces there is a threat particularly from young people who have been radicalised or lone wolf actors – and there are still about 400 people on the so-called national terror watch list.

The 16-year-old alleged to have stabbed two priests at the Christ the Good Shepherd Church in Wakeley was not on the list.

The 16-year-old alleged to have stabbed two priests at the Christ the Good Shepherd Church in Wakeley on Monday was not on the national terror watch list. Picture: Twitter

But Australia’s domestic spy agency ASIO boss Mike Burgess said on Tuesday that while one incident doesn’t mean the level will be raised, he has always maintained the threat remains.

If further information that others are involved in the background of the church attack comes to light, terrorism expert Professor Greg Barton from Deakin University, said that position may change.

“While he was a lone actor, he is not alone,” Professor Barton.

Dr Barton said law enforcement and intelligence will be combing through the attacker’s background and networks.

“If they find a large social network then there is a big problem. I would say watch this space.”

In his annual National Threat Assessment address in February, Mr Burgess revealed ASIO is currently investigating multiple individuals who have discussed conducting terrorism in Australia.

And “terrorism remains a threat – a real threat, a pervasive threat – even with a lower national threat level.”

“ … while Australia’s terrorist threats have reduced in scale, they have increased in complexity … we have seen ideologically motivated extremists switching between ideologies and merging components from different ones to create new, hybrid beliefs; a perverse ‘choose your own adventure’ approach to radicalisation,” Mr Burgess said.

Director-General of Security of ASIO, Mike Burgess. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

The National Terrorism Alert system has five threat levels – not expected, possible, probable, expected and certain.

The level was lowered in 2022 to possible, after eight years at probable.

Mr Burgess said at the time the decision was “not taken lightly” but there were now “fewer extremists with the intention to conduct an attack onshore than there were when we raised the threat level in 2014”.

He also said the change in the level “does not mean the threat is extinguished”.

Mr Burgess said ton Tuesday when the level was lowered he warned that the most likely attack would be an individual that goes to violence with little or no warning with a knife, car or gun.

Dr John Coyne, the head of Strategic Policy at Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) said the threat level of “possible” reflects the challenge of young people who have been radicalised.

“The terrorist threat level is set at possible. Many of us are shocked by this attack – the intelligence and law enforcement agencies have highlighted the challenge of young people being radicalised so once again we have at teenager who has been radicalised.”

“This very much in line with what the law enforcement intelligence agencies have been saying for some time.”

Security agencies have said any likely terrorist attack in Australia “involves a lone actor using a basic and easily obtained weapon such as a knife or vehicle” rather than a large-scaled sophisticated attack.

The United States Embassy and Consulates in Australia have warned US citizens to “remain vigilant” if travelling to Australia following the Bondi Junction attack that left six victims and the alleged attacker dead.

Originally published as ‘Extremists’: How Sydney church stabbing affects Australia’s terror threat level