Junk food to make up almost half our diet by 2030

Ultra-processed food consumption is increasing in Australia. And modelling shows women and people older than 71 years of age are on track to be most affected.

Ultra-processed food and sugary drinks will make up almost half of our diet by 2030, as Australia faces a “sharp decline” in healthy eating.

The nation’s top science agency has revealed our diets are on a “downward spiral” and on track to include more junk food, less fruit and consistently low levels of vegetables over the next five years.

CSIRO’s modelling shows, unless there is significant effort to change current trends, Australians will get 40 per cent of their calories from ultra-processed food and soft drinks, known as ‘discretionary foods’, by 2030.

They currently make up a little over a third of our daily calories but the CSIRO’s projections show consumption of these foods, will surge by almost 20 per cent over the next five years.

But, while our intake of ultra-processed food, which typically includes products high in calories, fat, sugar or salt, is rising, the report found fruit consumption has been declining since 2015.

Ultra-processed food and sugary drinks will make up almost half of our diet by 2030.

Analysis shows, at this rate, it would fall a further 10 per cent by 2030, putting the average Australian’s daily intake at around 1.3 servings.

We will likely eat the same amount of vegetables in five years time, but our typical intake — about 3.5 daily servings — was well below the recommendations.

The study, published in the Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, analysed nine years of data from 275,000 people to identify trends and project our changing habits.

Senior CSIRO research scientist Dr Gilly Hendrie said the modelling should act as “an early warning system”, with Australia set to miss our key nutrition targets for 2030.

“Rather than waiting to see the impact of poor dietary habits, we can now identify concerning trends and intervene before they become major public health issues,” she said.

“The gap between our current dietary trajectory and our national health targets is widening.

“By 2030 Australians will be eating twice as much discretionary foods as recommended.

“We’re going completely in the wrong direction.”

Dr Hendrie said the trends were concerning and diet was a key risk factor for chronic disease.

The targets are two servings of fruit and five of vegetables a day, and reducing discretionary food to less than 20 per cent of our total calorie intake.

Dr Hendrie said the trends were “concerning” and diet was “a key risk factor for chronic disease“.

“If we can course correct what we’re eating to improve our diet quality, then we can help to improve the health and wellbeing of Australians as well,” she said.

She said some demographics were further from the targets than others and, in a “surprising” result, they found people aged 18 to 30 were the only ones expected to increase their fruit and vegetable intake.

“But their discretionary food was also increasing quite highly as well,” she said.

When split by gender, women’s junk food intake was predicted to increase by 21 per cent, slightly above the increase for the general population, while fruit consumption was expected to decline by 13 per cent.

The only group with a steeper decline was older Australians, with those over 71 expected to record a 14.7 per cent drop.

Originally published as Junk food to make up almost half our diet by 2030