Monsters of Rock: Whatcha gonna do when LITHIUMANIA runs wild on you

Forget Hulkamania, lithium is the craze lighting up commodity markets this week, with spodumene prices hitting three-month highs.

Hulkamania? How about Lithiu-mania. Pic: Getty Images

• Lithiumania rises as spod prices hit three month high

• Rare earths stocks see valuations lift on NdPr price moves

• ASX 300 mining and metals index surges ~5% this week

The reality TV stars of the early 2000s are beginning to go the way of the dodo, after Hulk Hogan joined Ozzy Osbourne on the celebrity obituary list overnight.

Like most of the superstars of that era, the Hulkster has a spotty history. His electrifying personality put American pro wrestling on the global map, but he alienated peers and spent years effectively banished from public life for a racist slur.

Yet, for better or worse, the slogans, theme songs and Rocky III will live on forever.

None more so than Hulkamania, the enduring phrase that can be applied to pretty much any trend (if Heinrich Heine didn't get there first with Lizstomania which, of course, he did).

So we're taking a tiny bit of ill-gotten inspiration from the big, morally dubious man, or Sofia Coppola's husband's four-piece Phoenix, for today's descent into LITHIUMANIA.

Spodumene prices have made a radical comeback on a wave of mine closures in China where local authorities appear to be carrying out the CCP's will to trim competition that has driven heavy corporate losses outside integrated battery and car majors CATL and BYD.

We're now at US$810/t, levels not seen since April, after spod followed a massive +8% rise in futures in the Chinese market yesterday.

Incredible! At the close of trading today, the average #lithium carbonate futures price increased by 8.29% (the largest interday percentage change since 02/29/24), surpassing the average spot LC price by CNY 6,671 (the largest contango since 03/06/25). A boom in market sentiment! pic.twitter.com/6mUi4nUaoQ

— Juan Carlos Zuleta (@jczuleta) July 24, 2025

Profit-taking has sucked some heat out of the local names, with Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS), Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN), IGO (ASX:IGO) and Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) all down.

But over the past month the gains have been promising. Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) is up 37%, with IGO (ASX:IGO) +34%. Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS) has gained close to 50%, while Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN), also supported by a rising iron ore price, is close to 60% higher, bouncing off lows caused by weak lithium prices, balance sheet concerns and governance issues circling MD and founder Chris Ellison.

Lithium carbonate prices also leapt up, according to PRA Fastmarkets, with the key battery chemical rising US$250/t to US$8800/t.

We'll see if this holds up, but enthusiasm for the beaten down battery metals space is certainly returning.

READ: Is lithium finding its wings again? Here's what three ASX explorers have to say

Rare earthers

Now for rare earthers, another segment of the market where sentiment has been driving gains.

NdPr prices have surged since the announcement of a deal between the Department of Defense and US miner and refiner MP Materials.

The arbitrage between the US$110/kg price the US Government will offer the owner of the Mountain Pass mine and the Chinese benchmark (~US$60/kg before the news a fortnight ago) has begun to close.

Yesterday saw a 6.4% move in Chinese markets to US$73.6/kg, US$65.12/kg with value added tax excluded.

Analysts are more bullish now on the large rare earths stocks.

Canaccord upgraded Iluka Resources (ASX:ILU) from hold to buy and lifted its price target from $4.40 to $5.85 a share this week, noting not only that mineral sands production of 150,000t for the June quarter was well ahead of consensus (130,000t), but also that the MP Materials deal had provided a price signal that de-risked its Eneabba rare earth refinery.

"We have revised our modelling for JunQ actuals and revise our LT mineral sands pricing in line with consensus. Additionally, we have de-risked our Eneabba project NPV on an improved REE pricing outlook, the net impact seeing our SOTP-based target price increase to A$5.85/sh (from A$4.40/sh)," Canaccord's Reg Spencer and William Jones said.

Iluka has spent ~$570m on construction so far at the $1.8bn Eneabba project, which is backed with a big fat government loan.

Reporting its June quarter on Thursday, market leader Lynas (ASX:LYC) reported its first quarter producing more than 2000t of NdPr oxide, delivering 2080t (total 3212t), with first production also in the quarter of heavies terbium and dysprosium oxide.

Sales receipts climbed from $124.6m to $152.7m and sales revenue rose 38% to $170.2m. At $60.2/kg, Lynas enjoyed its highest average selling price since the middle of 2022, though cash and short term deposits dropped from $268.9m to $166.4.

Speaking to analysts yesterday, Lynas MD Amanda Lacaze was bullish on the MP Materials deal's potential to grow the rare earths market outside China.

"I think that it has sent a clear message about the determination of the US government to rebuild this sector outside China. And that certainly has a couple of different benefits," she said.

"One is it gives end users confidence to formulate material. I know that over many years, there have been end users who've said, well, gee, we need to invest in alternate technologies because of the supply chain risks associated with rare earths only coming from China. So I think we see a more vibrant and a more buoyant market, generally speaking. And I think that, that will underpin increasing -- increases in the price.

"Can (NdPr) go above $110? Yes. And I think if you read the detail of the deal, that there would be an expectation from the US government that that is likely to happen because they've negotiated ... a share of any upside over the $110 as part of their agreement."

Lacaze also attributed a recent run-up in prices to growing demand inside China, noting the Asian Metal price had gone up 12-13 bucks a keg in the past month.

Canaccord moved from buy to hold to Lynas on valuation, but lifted its price target from $8.80 to $9.65 on improving market conditions. Lynas shares have lifted 18% in the past month to $10.70, while Iluka's have run a mad 57% to $5.46.

There were a whole heap of gold stocks on the reporting roster this week as well. But ... we may just leave it for Gold Digger this afternoon to get stuck into them.

The ASX 300 Metals and Mining index rose 4.96% over the past week.

Which ASX 300 Resources stocks have impressed and depressed?

Making gains 

Coronado Global Resources (ASX:CRN) (coal) +45.5%

Patriot Battery Metals (ASX:PMT) (lithium) +38%

Pantoro (ASX:PNR) (gold) +25.2%

Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS) (lithium) +21.1%

Eating losses 

Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL) (gold) -4.4%

Regis Resources (ASX:RRL) (gold) -4.2%

Capricorn Metals (ASX:CMM) (gold) -3.3%

Westgold Resources (ASX:WGX) (gold) -2.7%

Coronado shares have lifted over the past week after The Australian reported Indian steelmaker JSW was close to nabbing a stake in its Curragh coal mine in Queensland, with cost control also improving in the debt-laden coal miner's recent quarterly. Shares mysteriously lifted over 17% on Friday.

Patriot ran higher on both lithium's price run and the announcement of the world's largest pollucite hosted caesium resource at its Shaakichiuwaanaan project in Quebec. The project already contains North America's biggest hard rock lithium deposit.

Pantoro produced 25,417oz, hitting the upper half of quarterly guidance for its Norseman gold mine. The project is finally producing real cash, with PNR building an additional $43.3m in cash and gold in the quarter on all in sustaining costs of $1991/oz, with EBITDA of $80.4m powering full year EBITDA to $196.4m.

Guidance of 100-110,000oz at $1950-2250/oz has been set for FY26, with $55m of exploration – 250,000m of drilling including over salt lakes unexplored since Western Mining owned the ground in the 1990s – and $67m of growth capital on the cards.

Iron ore prices have pulled the broader index higher, falling from recent highs of US$105/t to US$103.20/t in Singapore on Friday.

Originally published as Monsters of Rock: Whatcha gonna do when LITHIUMANIA runs wild on you