Leaked report reveals Germany’s preparations for terrifying war
Leaked military documents show a country is fearful of war spilling across Europe - and it has already sent troops to Poland.
ANALYSIS
Germany’s worried. A leaked secret military report reveals it is exploring the idea of Russia being so emboldened by the United States’ abandonment of Ukraine that it also invades Poland. And it’s not alone.
German newspaper Bild has obtained a copy of Alliance Defense 2025 – an “exercise scenario” produced by Germany’s Ministry of Defence detailing a potential massive Russian assault on Europe.
It’s a worst-case scenario.
And the ministry has since emphasised that it is “highly unlikely”.
However, military intelligence agencies worldwide are constantly required to analyse a spectrum of possible near, intermediate, and far-future threats.
This one is based on the premise of the rapid collapse of Ukraine amid faltering Western support. And President Vladimir Putin doing precisely what he says he wants to do – invade the former East European Soviet states of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland.
They’re now members of the NATO military alliance. Any attack on any or all of these is considered an attack on every nation within the alliance.
Germany’s not the only nation alarmed at the prospect.
Sweden’s Civil Defence Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin has repeatedly made similar warnings. It’s a threat his traditionally neutral nation takes seriously enough to have sought urgent membership in NATO.
Poland this week did a dramatic about-face and declared it would welcome German troops on its soil to help strengthen its borders – despite having been invaded by Adolf Hitler’s Nazis in 1939.
And Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas on Tuesday told British newspaper The Times that she believed Russia would attack her country. “Our intelligence estimates it to be three to five years, and that very much depends on how we manage our unity and keep our posture regarding Ukraine,” Kallas said.
But Moscow has mocked the leaked war scenario.
“I read the German ‘secret plan’ leaked into the Bild information gutter. It’s like a mighty horoscope from last year for Pisces in Cancer,” Kremlin foreign affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova posted to Russian social media.
‘Path to conflict’
The German Ministry of Defence has responded to the leak by saying it did not believe this scenario was any more likely than any of the other scenarios it had explored.
“Basically, I can tell you that considering different scenarios, even if they are extremely unlikely, is part of everyday military business, especially in training,” a spokesperson told German media.
But the report touches on a raw nerve.
Ukraine’s future is in the balance.
Incumbent US President Joe Biden says he will support Kyiv and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “for as long as it takes” to defeat Russia. But his Republican opponents, including presidential aspirant Donald Trump, are adamant that all financial and military aid be ended as soon as possible.
Without replacement stocks of advanced missiles – and ammunition, and spares for its Western-supplied tanks and armoured vehicles – Ukraine’s ability to resist could quickly evaporate.
And after a massive conscription campaign, Moscow has a fresh force of 200,000 troops in the wings – albeit less well-equipped and trained than those who led the bungled invasion in February 2022.
According to Bild, Russia’s campaign against the West could begin as early as July this year with a series of plausibly deniable cyberattacks and a disinformation campaign aimed at inciting minority groups inside Eastern Europe.
Escalation alarms
The German military document reportedly expects Russian troops – once Ukraine’s forces are defeated – will reposition along the Ukrainian/Belarus border with Poland.
Russia’s enclave on the Baltic coast, Kaliningrad, would also be reinforced with air defence and strike missiles and a strong ground force presence.
The German scenario foresees NATO responding.
Eastern Europe will be reinforced by an additional 300,000 troops drawn from its many members – including the UK, France, Spain and Italy.
The particular standoff scenario envisaged by the German intelligence unit is for a Kremlin-based chaos campaign targeting Russian-speaking minority groups in Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia.
Manufactured incidents involving these minority communities being harassed would be used by the Kremlin to justify intervention. And the claim NATO was about to invade Russia would at the same time be hyped by state-controlled media.
We’ve already seen both arguments used by the Kremlin to justify the “special military occupation” in Ukraine.
“Riots with numerous deaths” among Poland’s and Latvia’s Russian-speaking citizens would be used to justify the escalation of the crisis. This could lead to border clashes along the “Suwalki Gap” – a narrow strip of Polish and Latvian land separating Belarus from Russia’s Kaliningrad.
The first move in this direction could come as early as September this year.
Moscow’s annual large-scale “Zapad 2024” military training exercise could again be used as a plausibly deniable means of repositioning troops and equipment in preparation for war.
By March 2025, Russia – the report warns – could be in a position to launch an outright invasion.
Clear and present danger
NATO’s taking the threat of Russia seriously – this week conducting one of the largest military exercises since the Cold War by mobilising and moving some 90,000 troops.
Meanwhile, it’s winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
With the troops and tanks of both sides dug in to ride out the season of snow and ice, Moscow has renewed its onslaught on Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure using an arsenal of North Korean and Iranian missiles and drones.
Kyiv, however, is facing a growing shortage of troops. And those troops are receiving less Western ammunition and equipment.
That’s already resulted in some minor advances by Russian forces.
The implications have Estonia rattled.
“Weakness provokes aggressors, so weakness provokes Russia,” Prime Minister Kallas told The Times.
Poland is also taking the threat seriously enough to overturn old animosities.
The offer by Germany to send a military unit to reinforce Poland’s defences shortly after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was declined. And the notion of German troops on Polish soil was the subject of bitter debate during last year’s national elections.
But this week, the new government – a coalition headed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk – said it was willing to consider the idea.
“When the war is taking place behind our eastern border, any help and co-operation from our allies is most welcome,” Deputy Foreign Minister Andrzej Szejna said. “So, if the Germans want to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank in Poland as they did in Lithuania, Herzlich willkommen!”
Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @JamieSeidel
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