US election polls: Kamala Harris loses lead for first time since overtaking Donald Trump
Kamala Harris saw the complete erosion of the national lead held after replacing Joe Biden, as Donald Trump chipped away at the popular vote.
A new poll saw Kamala Harris lose the lead in the national popular vote for the first time since she replaced Joe Biden and overtook Donald Trump.
Ms Harris immediately turned around the Democratic ticket’s performance in late July when she replaced the president, who was lagging behind Mr Trump by about 3 points. She took the lead in early August and had maintained it ever since, peaking by 2.2 points between mid-September and early October.
The New York Times/Siena poll going into the weekend had Mr Trump and Ms Harris in a dead heat of 48 to 48, and the RCP average of national polls reflected the neck and neck race in a near identical tie of 48.5 to 48.5
A Republican hasn’t won the national popular vote in 20 years since George W Bush in 2004, in the first election after 9/11.
Conventional wisdom holds that a Democrat needs to win the popular vote by 2 to 3 points to win, given the quirks of the Electoral College system.
It’s possible for Mr Trump to win the popular vote and still lose in the Electoral College if he overperforms in the deep-blue states of New York and California. He made massive inroads in the Democratic strongholds, and while that will help Republicans for control of the Senate and House it won’t help Mr Trump in the presidential race.
Democratic pollster Mark Penn said the three to four-point movement across three polls from the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and Forbes showed a clear trend in the direction of Mr Trump in the last few weeks.
“This is real movement and momentum going into the close. It is still close but this is a substantial move,” he said.
Political analyst Ronald Brownstein dived into the NYT cross tabs, highlighting that Ms Harris is matching Mr Biden in 2020 with the white vote but she has fallen behind with minority voters – especially Latinos.
That leaves running the table in the “Blue Wall” of Rust Belt states as her most, and perhaps only, viable path: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
What do the latest national polls show?
According to the Real Clear Politics average of national polls, Ms Harris and Mr Trump are in a dead heat. Not just a statistical tie, but a precise tie of 48.5 to 48.5.
That marks the complete erosion of the lead Ms Harris maintained over the former president since she surged ahead after replacing Mr Biden as the Democratic candidate three months ago.
It came as Mr Trump inched ahead in several national polls this week, including the latest New York Time’s tie, as wells as a Wall Street Journal survey that had him ahead 47 per cent to 45 per cent.
Two separate polls had Mr Trump up by two, with a Forbes survey having him up 51 per cent to 49 per cent and a CNBC survey putting him up 48 per cent to 46 per cent.
What about polling in the battleground states?
America’s Electoral College system means the next president will be decided by voters in seven battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina.
Bear in mind that in 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Mr Trump in the overall popular vote by almost three million, but he convincingly won the Electoral College by triumphing in swing states.
According to the Real Clear Politics average, the former president currently leads Ms Harris in all seven battlegrounds, but his advantage in each state is so narrow that the candidates are statistically tied. Combined, he’s up 0.9 per cent over Ms Harris.
Mr Trump is ahead by 0.6 percentage points in Pennsylvania, 0.2 percentage points in Wisconsin and in Michigan, and 0.8 percentage points in North Carolina. He has a stronger lead in Georgia at 2.2 points and Arizona at 1.5 points.
Earlier this week, a Washington Post-Schar School poll of 5000 registered voters across the seven swing states found the candidates were deadlocked on 47 per cent.
What if the polls are wrong?
In 2016, while the national polls were remarkably accurate, they overlooked Mr Trump’s swing state strength that handed him a stunning victory. Four years ago, the national polls over-estimated Mr Biden’s advantage, and he only squeaked home in key battlegrounds.
Should the polls miss in the same way as 2020 this time around, Mr Trump would easily sweep the seven states up for grabs, ensuring a dominant victory.
But if the polls are wrong in the same way they were during the 2022 congressional midterm elections – when the Democrats surprisingly averted a Republican wipe-out – then Ms Harris would win.
According to renowned polling guru Nate Silver, Mr Trump currently has a 53 per cent chance of winning the Electoral College and returning to the White House.
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Originally published as US election polls: Kamala Harris loses lead for first time since overtaking Donald Trump