Donald Trump resets US-Saudi Alliance, offering weapons and tech despite Jamal Khashoggi murder fallout
US President Donald Trump’s declaration of undying friendship with Saudi Crown Prince this week has struck a very discordant note across the planet.
“We’ve always been on the same side of every issue.”
US President Donald Trump’s declaration of undying friendship with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) this week struck a discordant note.
It was during his first term as President that Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered and dismembered in a Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Turkey.
It was during his first term as President that the White House sanctioned 17 of the Crown Prince’s associates based on a damning CIA intelligence report.
In the international uproar that followed, Saudi Arabia and its ambitious young prince became pariahs.
Corporate deals were cancelled. Military sales were banned. Trade ties were reviewed. Diplomatic deals were dismantled.
It’s remarkable what a difference seven years makes.
The Crown Prince has returned to Washington DC in triumph. And the 47th President of the United States has lavished him with (almost) every gift he desires.
A broad new defence pact has been struck.
Secret F-35 stealth fighters and M1 Abrams tanks will be handed over.
Access to critical semiconductor supply lines has been secured as part of a $US1 trillion investment package.
And talks on nuclear technology sharing have advanced.
But few details about any of these deals have yet to be released.
“This may well be a great deal for the corporations that stand to benefit from the lavish shopping spree, but it remains a raw and risky deal for the American people, who will be stuck with the bill,” warns executive director of Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), Sarah Whitson.
DAWN was founded by Khashoggi before his assassination in 2018.
“What started as employment and business deals with recently resigned government officials, now including deals with family members of Trump himself, have made it much harder for the US government to distance itself from the kingdom as well.”
Monarch of change
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is Saudi Arabia’s ruling regent.
King Mohammed bin Salman has been sidelined due to ill health and political manoeuvring. His public profile is now mainly limited to ceremonial roles.
MBS was anointed heir in 2015. He’s since secured his grip on the throne through a sweeping “anti-corruption purge” that sidelined all his opponents.
Now, he’s seeking to build a reputation as the nation’s greatest monarch.
Now, he’s seeking to build a reputation as the nation’s greatest monarch.
He’s launched massively ambitious construction projects, including “The Line”, a mirrored city that is supposed to cut a high-tech swath through the desert.
He’s moved to shift his nation’s economic reliance away from oil.
He’s seeking to buy global influence through enormous investment projects.
“The rehabilitation of Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman from global pariah to global patron is one of the most extraordinary political feats of our time,” writes Whitson.
“What hasn’t changed is the country’s government: an absolute dictatorship under a single, completely unaccountable leader.”
It was the prince’s brother Khalid bin Salman, then Saudi ambassador to the United States, who had instructed Khashoggi to attend the consulate in person to resolve paperwork issues relating to his pending marriage to his Turkish fiancée.
And the White House Director of National Intelligence traced the chain of command leading to the journalist’s brutal murder through 76 agents and back to MBS himself.
This week, President Trump declared his friendship with the Crown Prince as “among the most consequential in the entire world.”
And that includes the promise of military co-operation.
Though we don’t know under what terms.
“Trump has not announced whether he is giving the Saudis a one-way security guarantee, or whether there are mutual-security commitments,” notes Middle East Security Initiative analyst and former US ambassador to Israel, Dan Shapiro.
Trump proudly proclaimed that the agreement enabled the sale of billions worth of defence equipment. But did not explain what else it entails.
“It’s widely expected that it will obtain a security commitment at least equal to Qatar’s, with a promise from Trump to commit US troops to defend the country should it come under attack,” Whitson speculates.
But the Atlantic Council’s chief security analyst, Tressa Guenov, says the lack of detail on the deal may conceal an underlying weakness. Designating a nation a “Major Non-NATO Ally” is a “favourite tool of US presidents to cap off major visits with a symbolic flourish to indicate elevated relations,” Guenov explains.
Riyadh already enjoys the benefits such a designation entails, she adds, saying that the terminology “does not provide any special or enforceable security guarantees, nor is it a binding treaty.”
Stealthy business deals
“This [Crown Prince bin Salman] is a great ally, and Israel is a great ally,” Trump declared after the White House meeting.
“I know they’d like you to get planes of reduced calibre.
“But as far as I’m concerned, I think they are both at a level where they should get top of the line.”
It’s a significant turnaround in military technology sales policy.
“Similar efforts to sell F-35s to the UAE were not realised across the previous Trump and Biden administrations, in part due to concerns of technology transfer to China,” says Guenov.
US intelligence agencies have reportedly raised similar concerns with the Trump Administration over Riyadh’s murky links to Beijing.
Then there’s Israel.
Its treaties with the US demand that it be given a “qualitative military edge” over all other regional powers. And the F-35 stealth fighter and M1A2 SEPv3 (System Enhancement Package version 3) Abrams main battle tank are the best Washington DC has to offer.
But Shapiro says President Trump believes Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has nothing to worry about. “Israel will have been flying the F-35 for a decade and a half before the first Saudi plane is delivered, and Israel will have nearly seventy-five F-35s by then,” he states.
A similar deal had already been approved for the United Arab Emirates. But it was cancelled once the UAE failed to “normalise” diplomatic relations with Israel.
“It appears there is no link to Saudi normalisation with Israel in this deal,” Shapiro adds.
The AI Memorandum of Understanding with Saudi Arabia is also a significant policy about-face.
No details on the proposed deal have been made public.
“Likely this means the approval of the sale of a package of advanced AI chips to Saudi Arabia,” argues Atlantic Council technology analyst Tess deBlanc-Knowles.
AI technology is one of the United States’ few remaining fields of technological leadership. That’s why the White House adopted an “AI Diffusion Rule” under the Biden Administration to limit the sale of advanced silicon chips abroad.
Now, all eyes are on whether or not “the provisions of the new AI agreement focused on technology protection and what measures will be put in place to keep America’s most advanced AI chips out of reach of Chinese adversaries,” observes deBlanc-Knowles.
The nuclear option
The Crown Prince has repeatedly expressed his desire to possess nuclear weapons.
And he’s refused all efforts to get Saudi Arabia to sign international nuclear nonproliferation treaties.
He points to a 2015 agreement that allowed Iran to enrich uranium to low levels. And how the US has supported Israel in bypassing all nuclear limitations.
The Crown Prince’s arguments have had an impact.
In May, President Trump indicated nuclear cooperation with Riyadh was no longer dependent on diplomatic normalisation with Israel.
This week, he reinforced his positive attitude towards a nuclear technology transfer.
The two leaders announced a Joint Declaration on the Completion of Negotiations on Civil Nuclear Energy Cooperation during the Oval Office visit.
“I can see that happening,” Trump said in response to a reporter’s question. “It’s not urgent.”
It’s not a done deal. Yet.
“Saudi Arabia has indicated keen interest for years in pursuing civil nuclear technologies,” notes Atlantic Council Nuclear Energy Policy Initiative director Jennifer Gordon.
Riyadh insists it needs high levels of stable energy output for essential water desalination projects, as well as its national power grid. But it also insists on remaining ambiguous about its nuclear weapons intentions.
And President Trump may want to sell Saudi Arabia its nuclear technology so “it can exert influence on security matters and help prevent the development of nuclear weapons in Saudi Arabia and beyond,” Gordon adds.
The sticking point, as with Iran, remains uranium enrichment.
The Crown Prince insists that Saudi Arabia gain this capability.
The process allows raw yellowcake to be refined into weapons-grade concentrations. The centrifuges that drive such refinement were the target of US and Israeli bombing attacks on Iran earlier this year.
Following the President’s statement, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said enrichment was off the table.
“No enrichment. In this agreement, this is just for the construction of a power plant, American technology, American companies to build a very large nuclear power plant in Saudi Arabia,” the secretary told Fox News. “The ultimate deal that will be done is a ‘123 Agreement’ that will go to the United States Congress for approval. But it is about civilian, civil use of nuclear power. It is not about enrichment. It is not about anything related to weapons. It’s just about generating electricity.”
No process or timeline for the deal has been made public.
It’s a case of watch the money.
“Trump has been explicit and forthright about the transactional nature of the relationship, built on commercial alignment: US military protection in return for Saudi capital commitments,” Whitson concludes.
“The US beneficiaries of such a deal would no doubt include the businesses profiting from Saudi lucre, but the costs, military, diplomatic, and moral, would be borne by the American public, including the US soldiers who would be expected to risk their lives to save the Saudi royal family.”
Originally published as Donald Trump resets US-Saudi Alliance, offering weapons and tech despite Jamal Khashoggi murder fallout
