What the new Senate means for Sussan Ley’s leadership of the Libs

When the Senate resets next week, Sussan Ley will see her party room majority slip to just one vote. But the Liberals are in no mood to challenge – yet, writes Angira Bharadwaj.

Opposition Leader Sussan Ley is set to lose two key allies when the Senate resets on Tuesday, but the Liberal Party room has promised to rally behind her after accusations they have a women’s problem, and weeks of “navel gazing” after a catastrophic election loss.

It comes as Australia prepares to welcome a Senate that is very different to the last term, with the Nationals losing their former deputy leader Perin Davey along with their major party status, One Nation doubling its Senate representation to four seats, and Labor welcoming five new Senators, including the nation’s youngest in 21-year-old Charlotte Walker.

The Labor Party has also seen two MPs switch houses, with former Higgins MP Michelle Ananda-Rajah moving to the Senate after her seat was abolished, and Tasmanian Senator Anne Urquhart winning the seat of Braddon and moving to the lower house.

Opposition Leader Sussan Ley addresses the National Press Club of Australia. Picture: Martin Ollman

The Liberals lost three Senators, replacing one of them — outspoken Senator Hollie Hughes — with newcomer Jess Collins after a brutal factional brawl.

Liberal MPs told The Saturday Telegraph the loss of retiring MP Linda Reynolds and Ms Hughes from the Senate would lower support for Ms Ley in her party room. She won the leadership over Angus Taylor by four votes.

Ms Ley was also dealt a blow when Bradfield candidate Gisele Kapterian lost the last north shore stronghold to Teal Nicolette Boele by just 26 votes.

One Liberal MP said the party room had certainly made note of the fact that Ms Ley was down three votes compared to Mr Taylor losing one likely supporter – outgoing Senator David Fawcett — but added that calling for a leadership recount or a challenge would be an own goal.

If Senator Hughes’, Reynolds’ and Fawcett’s votes along with Ms Kapterian’s vote were not counted, the difference between Ms Ley and Mr Taylor based on the post-election count was just one vote.

Retiring senator Linda Reynolds. Picture: NewsWire/Martin Ollman

One Liberal source said the prospect of how close the leadership challenge could have been was “hard to ignore” but there was “no benefit” in a recount.

“I think it’s noted that things have changed dramatically but I don’t think anyone is out there calling for a recount,” they said.

“She’s ahead by one now and we are talking about it.

“It’s hard to ignore but there is no benefit for us to go through that process now.”

It’s understood Ms Ley’s decision to award Ms Kapterian a frontbench role even before she had been declared the winner of the seat upset some existing backbenchers who missed out.

Sources close to Mr Taylor also said there would be no rematch between the pair and Ms Ley should be given the opportunity to prove herself.

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson and Senator Malcolm Roberts. Picture: Martin Ollman

“Sussan won the leadership and she has to be given an opportunity to succeed,” another MP said.

“If she doesn’t succeed in 18 months, well then we’ll have that conversation, but Angus is not going to challenge.

“It’s disastrous for us if she fails but it’s even worse if she’s being torn down.”

Others said Ms Ley’s grip on the leadership had strengthened since her rise to power, crediting her decision to stare down the Nationals’ brief decision to leave the Coalition.

Ms Ley was also praised for her performance at the National Press Club, something her predecessor Peter Dutton refused to partake in.

The passionate speech – that seemed to be the antithesis of Mr Dutton’s leadership strategy –was welcomed for its strong commentary on women’s issues, including their safety and participation in politics.

Senator Perin Davey at the National Press Club of Australia on Canberra. Picture: Martin Ollman

“If you called the party room and had a ballot again today, Sussan’s margin would be ahead,” another Liberal MP said.

“We would look suicidal if we tried to change the leadership. We’ve spent enough time navel gazing after the election.

“She’s our first female leader and that’s a point of pride.”

But the source claimed the loss of three supporters in the party room would mean she was at risk of being undermined, even if there was no outright leadership challenge.

“There is a hard core of Angus supporters and over time they’ll try to undermine and see if she will make mistakes,” they said.

The departure of the four Coalition senators would make little difference to the Senate, sources from across the political spectrum conceded, because Labor needed to deal with only the Greens to pass legislation.

Mehreen Faruqi (left), newly elected Greens leader Larissa Waters (C) , and Senator Sarah Hanson-Young (R) walk out of their election meeting in Melbourne. Picture: Luis Enrique Ascui

A crossbencher told The Telegraph they expected the negotiations might be more straightforward in this term of government, but warned that Labor’s 94-seat majority would come with arrogance across both chambers.

We will deal with an incredibly arrogant Labor government,” they said.

“Which often provides extraordinary political opportunities.”

Nationals leader Bridget McKenzie said she was concerned the Greens and Labor would feel no need to engage with crossbenchers and other parties.

“There was always hope in the previous Senate that if enough independently thinking senators … could agree on a proposition then that could be enacted,” she said.

“Because of the discipline of the Greens and the discipline of the Labor Party, I just have a concern that there are only really two options even if everyone else banded together.”

David Littleproud, Kevin Hogan and Bridget McKenzie hold a press conference at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: Martin Ollman

Fellow Nationals Senator Matt Canavan agreed that the Labor-Green numbers in the Senate were disappointing, but said the Coalition was going to “dust ourselves off and continue the fight”.

“Given the government effectively has control with their Greens … there is the risk the senate will be turned into a rubber stamp,” he said.

It’s understood the loss of former Nationals deputy leader Senator Perin Davey has not made a significant difference to the party’s capabilities in the Senate, particularly with the Coalition back together.

Originally published as What the new Senate means for Sussan Ley’s leadership of the Libs