Weather Victoria: Chances grow for El Nino

AUTUMN has so far failed to fire across much of Victoria with some centres recording as little as 1 per cent of their normal March rain.

AUTUMN has so far failed to fire across much of Victoria with some centres recording as little as 1 per cent of their normal March rain.

It comes as the Bureau of Meteorology warns of drier-than-average El Nino conditions forming this year.

The BOM said there was now a 70 per cent chance of an El Nino during 2019 — about triple the normal likelihood. An El Nino typically brings drier-than-average conditions for eastern Australia during winter and spring.

Just over four weeks remain until Anzac Day — long considered the ideal date for an autumn break in southeast Australia, with grain growers currently finalising preparations to plant their all-important winter crops.

BOM figures show March has been significantly drier than average following a drier and hotter January and February.

However, many farmers say they have enough soil moisture to get their winter cropping programs under way thanks to good rain during December.

Of the 37 BOM weather stations monitored by The Weekly Times, only two — Cooma and Albury in NSW — have recorded a wetter-than-average month in March, with 25 recording less than half their normal rain.

Of those, six — Hopetoun, Deniliquin NSW, Swan Hill, Ouyen, Echuca and Yarrawonga — have each recorded less than 10 per cent of their average March rain.

Hopetoun has measured just 0.2mm for the month — representing 1 per cent of its long-term average.

On the flip side, parts of parched East Gippsland have recorded welcome solid totals this month, with Orbost’s 50.6mm its best monthly total since June last year. Orbost now needs just 2.8mm in the next four days to record its first average or wetter-than-average month in 14 months.

The BOM’s eight-day outlook predicts up to 10mm to fall across Victoria in the next week with isolated pockets in the North East and South Gippsland forecast to receive as much as 25mm.

It follows some good falls across southeast Australia in the past week, particularly in southern NSW and the North East. In southern NSW, Khancoban picked up 71.4mm in the seven days to 9am yesterday ahead of Tumbarumba (47.2mm) and Cootamundra (39.4mm). In the North East, Yarck recorded 59mm and Mitta Mitta 46mm.