Weather experts say El Nino still to strike

WEATHER experts say the feared El Nino will reveal itself across Victoria in just a few weeks.

El Nino threat imminent

WEATHER experts say the feared El Nino will reveal ­itself across Victoria in a few weeks.

Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Kevin Smith said the El Nino would dry out the state by the end of the month.

“Every indicator we have shows the El Nino strengthening all the time and we think it will severely influence the spring,” Mr Smith said.

After a dry start to the year, most of Victoria has received close to average winter rain although Gippsland and the North East are well above average.

The western Victoria grain belt has little subsoil moisture reserves, with Warracknabeal and Bendigo about 10mm below their winter’s average rain while Charlton has received about half its winter average.

Hamilton has recorded 21mm so far this month, but is 20mm below average for the first two months of winter.

Some international weather models suggest the El Nino could strengthen to 1982 ­levels, the state’s record drought.

One of the key indicators of the El Nino, monitored in the Pacific Ocean, may exceed the peak values reached during the 2002 and 2009 El Nino events, the spokesman said.

“But current anomalies remain well short of the 1982 and 1997 peaks,” he said.

Victorian Government seasonal risk agronomist Dale Grey said crops in most areas of the state were “ticking along OK”, but it was a week-to-week proposition going into August-September.

“The 11 climate models I monitor all agree the El Nino is likely to hang around until summer, but they are evenly split on whether it will be an average or drier spring in terms of rainfall,” Mr Grey said.

“While the Pacific Ocean is exerting drying forces, the ­Indian Ocean is trying to create conditions that are more conducive to rain, a feature that makes it very different from past El Ninos.”

Dried Fruits Australia chairman Mark King said people had made decisions based on the El Nino warnings to avoid risk.

“I think most people say the El Nino prediction might not be right, but you would be a fool not to take notice of it,” Mr King said.