Victoria’s weather forecast to stay dry through to Christmas

A NEW climate trigger has emerged to worsen the prospects for late spring rain in Victoria.

Grace McLeod, Crop & Sheep farming at Nhill. Good Season, Crops. after plenty of rain. Yanac Creek rarely flows .

A NEW climate trigger has emerged to worsen the prospects for late spring rain in Victoria.

Weather experts say a positive Indian Ocean Dipole has now emerged to combine with a strengthening El Nino.

The Bureau of Meteorology today released a gloomy rain prediction for south east Australia through to Christmas.

The bureau’s meteorology climate prediction manager, Andrew Watkins, said the nation’s key climate drivers were “rapidly evolving”.

Dr Watkins said the October outlook update shows a notable shift — up to a 40 percentage point decrease in some areas — towards a drier month nationwide, with the southeast quarter of Australia indicating a less than 20 per cent chance of exceeding median rainfall.

This means Victoria has a greater than 80 per cent chance of a drier month.

He said October to December was likely to be drier than average across southeast and northeast Australia.

Dr Watkins said the outlook reflected a combination of a mature El Nino in the Pacific, and an emerging positive Indian Ocean Dipole.

He said there had been “a significant shift” toward a drier October for much of Australia.

“It’s highly likely this is related to a rapidly strengthening positive Indian Ocean Dipole,” Dr Watkins said.

“We have been watching the waters to Australia’s northwest for signs of sea surface cooling that could reinforce the impact of the current strong El Niño.

“We are now seeing these signs, and their impact has been reflected in the most recent model outlooks for October,” Dr Watkins said.

He said September rainfall for Australia was third lowest on record.

For Victoria, Tasmania and Western Australia it was among the 10 driest Septembers on record.