Season in Victoria is on knife’s edge ahead of spring

THE season in parts of Victoria is on a knife edge, days from the spring finishing period for crops.

Cropping, Robert Cowan, wife Kate, Ellie 2 and a half & James 9 months from Minyip, at Dooen where they are growing wheat, dry sown cop, and is short on sub soil moisture. needs a good soaking of 25 to 30 ml

THE season in parts of Victoria is on a knife edge just days away from the critical spring finishing period for crops.

Spring starts next Tuesday amid concerns of a looming hot and dry El Nino weather pattern heightened by below-average winter rain across Victoria. Some western parts of the state have received less than half the rain they’d expect during winter.

August has been the tipping point with most centres tracking significantly below average.

Horsham, in the heart of Victoria’s grains belt, has received just 8.2mm this month, less than a quarter of its long-term average.

Nhill has received just 9.4mm of rain against an average of 41.2mm while Geelong has measured just 2mm. Its long-term August average is 44mm.

Forecasters say the El Nino weather pattern, which predominantly affects areas of inland eastern Australia, is shaping up as the strongest since 1997, but it doesn’t necessarily mean a particularly dry spring for farmers.

Southern NSW enjoyed good falls of more than 40mm this week with Cooma receiving 41.2mm in the 24 hours to 9am yesterday, followed by Yanco (38mm), Bega (36.6mm) and Young (26.6mm).

And, while parts of Victoria also received handy totals — Rutherglen in the North East measured 14.6mm on Monday while Gelantipy and Omeo in the high country recorded 20.4mm and 16.4mm respectively — experts agree the need for rain is the greatest in the cropping regions where they say the season is just holding on.

SQP Grains’ Mallee grains merchant Brad Cullen said parts of west and northwest Victoria needed “a decent lick of rain ... 15mm-plus” in the next fortnight to keep crop potential “on an even keel”.

He said while Mallee yield prospects were still good “there really isn’t much subsoil moisture there at all”.

“If we see any sort of sudden spike in temperatures, that crop is going to come under pressure pretty quickly,” Mr Cullen said. “(Rain is) probably even more critical in the Wimmera with some of their heavier soils.”

In the Wimmera, St Arnaud agronomist Brett Douglas said local crops were looking good but “a little bit behind where we would hope to be”.

“If we weren’t looking at the forecast we’d be very happy with where we are sitting at the moment,” Mr Douglas said.

“If we could get 15-20mm across our region in the next week we’d be in a really good position. We need to get some substantial moisture before we start getting too warm.”

Mildura temperatures topped 24C last week, 7C above average.

Moama NSW farmer Michael Evans said if he didn’t receive any rain soon, the situation “could get ugly”.

Lachie Dickie, who farms at Parwan, near Bacchus Marsh, said his season had “just cut out”.

“It’s terrible — we need rain sooner rather than later,” Mr Dickie said. “At the moment yield-wise we’re looking at one tonne/ha for canola and two tonnes/ha for our wheat and barley. If it rains, we could double that.”

Around Wedderburn, FP Nevins and Co auctioneer Chris Nevins said livestock producers were struggling with juggling a tough season and low water supplies.

“Water is a major problem around Wedderburn and the lambs haven’t (made sucker grade) because the season has not been good,” he said.

“There will be a flood of lambs this spring (into the Bendigo market), but they will be secondary lambs because people won’t be able to finish them.”

In the Western District, Landmark Casterton agent Greg Bright said the season was “OK” but rain was needed “every week or so to keep things going now”.

Australian Fodder Industry Association executive officer Darren Keating said he had heard of hay buyers trying to lock in supplies “a little bit earlier than we’d expect”.

“Even some of the suppliers are not super confident of locking it in,” Mr Keating said.

Bureau of Meteorology senior meteorologist Phil King said scattered showers were forecast across Victoria into the weekend, which could deliver 5-10mm of rain.

“But we don’t expect much from Horsham to Echuca,” he said.