No change to El Nino outlook as forecasters predict dry times

Forecasters continue to predict a dry spring, but fail to go further than an alert level for El Nino in latest predictions.

Predictions of a dry spring have firmed today with the nation’s forecaster keeping an alert level for El Nino.

And southern Australia could be some of the worst areas affected if El Nino predictions prove correct.

The Bureau of Meteorology has maintained its El Nino outlook at alert rather than going further, and said its long-range forecast “reflects known impacts from several significant climate drivers”.

“In the past, when we have reached El Nino alert, events have subsequently developed around 70 per cent of the time,” the BOM said.

“El Nino typically increases the chance of below average spring rainfall for the eastern half of Australia, and above average daytime temperatures for the southern two-thirds of Australia.”

Below average rainfall is expected across large tracts of the nation including southern Australia where the odds are even higher of smaller falls.

According to its predictions, large areas of Australia are expected to have a 60-80 per cent chance of below median rainfall. Those areas include most of the eastern two-thirds of Australia and southern Western Australia.

But it is even more sombre news for southern Australia and eastern Queensland which the BOM said had an 80 per cent chance of below median rainfall.

“Unusually low rainfall is at least two times as likely for much of southern Australia and broad areas of the Northern Territory and Queensland,” the BOM said.

“Unusually low rainfall equates to the driest 20 per cent of September to November periods from 1981 to 2018.”

Large areas of Australia could be facing below average rainfall.

The BOM said past accuracy of September to November long-range forecasts for the chance of above median rainfall was high to very high for most of Australia, decreasing to low to very low for some western areas of the mainland.

But consultant Phil Graham from Graham Advisory said high rainfall in spring was not necessary to still have a reasonable season especially for livestock.

“We don’t need to have a ‘big’ spring,” Mr Graham said.

“Farmers also need to look at soil moisture levels at the end of winter, what herbage they have at the time and spring rainfall combined.”

Mr Graham said “big” springs were not always needed to make money, especially with livestock.

“The bigger the spring, the lower the pasture quality,” he said.

“All you need to think about is whether you are going to get a spring, and forget about a big spring.”