La Nina forecast to replace El Nino in winter, Victorian Government experts say

SOME long range forecasts are now suggesting a wetter La Nina climate may influence Victoria’s weather this winter.

La Nina pops up

SOME long range forecasts are now suggesting a wetter La Nina climate may influence Victoria’s weather this winter.

Several weather forecasting models now predict the El Nino will be replaced by a weak La Nina in winter, according to Victorian Government experts.

The popular “Fast Break” long range forecast from the Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources Department said most climate models suggested average to a slightly wetter autumn.

A similar forecast was made by the Bureau of Meteorology which predicted drought would break across most of Victoria in autumn.

March is likely to be drier than average across northern Australia, and parts of southeast mainland Australia, the bureau said in its climate outlook.

Autumn rainfall is more likely to be above average across the southeast, except eastern NSW and eastern Victoria, the bureau’s weather experts said.

The government’s climate forecast showed half the climate models predicted a weak La Nina developing in winter, but the other half were mixed in their outlooks.

“Predictions at this time of the year are notoriously poor and four to six months out even worse,” the Victorian forecast said.

It said the Equatorial Pacific Ocean remained at a moderate El Nino temperature with trade winds, undersea heat and surface temperature indicating it was slowly dying.

“The undersea shows the initial signs of a potential for a La Nina, but much random weather and good luck is required in the next four months to guarantee this.”

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