High subsoil moisture levels in some areas could negate El Nino

PARTS of Victoria and southern NSW could escape the looming El Nino relatively unscathed.

NEWS: Cropping Robert Cowan at Dooen.

PARTS of Victoria and southern NSW could escape the looming El Nino relatively unscathed.

Good winter rain in Victoria’s North East and the NSW Riverina should allow local producers to get through a drier spring without big spring falls.

But areas where the subsoil is not already wet could face a tough spring if El Nino conditions produce lower than average rainfalls, according to NSW Department of Primary Industries technical specialist for livestock systems Phil Graham.

Areas such as the Wimmera, where winter rain has fallen short, would need up to 150mm of rain early in spring to turn their season around, Mr Graham said.

Horsham received just 73mm of rain from May-July, compared to the average of 115mm.

And at the other end of the scale, Shepparton has received 96mm — just 3mm short of its long term three-month average rainfall of 99mm.

Mr Graham said good winter rain throughout southern and eastern NSW and parts of Victoria such as the Goulburn Valley and the North East could help negate the effects of El Nino in spring.

“It means that if those areas get 70mm or so in the first six weeks of spring, they should get an average year,” he said.

But in areas where there has not been much winter rain, like the Wimmera, falls of 100-150mm would be needed in the first few weeks of spring to create an average year.

Mr Graham said the chances of an El Nino were strengthening.

“But if the subsoil moisture levels are already there, which they are in southern NSW and parts of Victoria, you don’t need to rely on big spring rains to get an average year,” he said.

“Farmers in those areas will be able to finish their crops and grow enough feed to last them through to late summer.”

Graham Wilson, who farms at Howlong, NSW, said winter rain had set the district’s farms up as the “best August in a long time”.

“We have plenty of subsoil moisture and we keep getting a top up,” Mr Wilson said.

“If we can keep getting a few showers, we are set up for a ripper season.

“It is almost too wet but you don’t wish rain away.”