Godzilla El Nino conditions show signs of weakening

THE current El Nino weather pattern has not lived up to its “Godzilla” status as it continues to show signs of weakening.

dry weather

THE current El Nino weather pattern has not lived up to its “Godzilla” status.

University of Melbourne atmospheric science professor David Karoly told The Weekly Times the El Nino – which the Bureau of Meteorology last week said remained strong but had continued to show signs of breaking down – had “not quite” earned the Godzilla stripes given to it by many commentators last year.

“It is not the strongest El Nino in the past 100 years but it is a very strong one … it has had major impacts all around the world, not just in eastern Australia,” Prof Karoly said.

“The one that is considered to be the strongest is the one of 1997-98.”

The El Nino intensified last spring, with many western Victoria districts receiving well-below average rain.

In October, the dry conditions, coupled with a five-day heatwave, prompted many farmers to cut wilting grain crops for hay.

BOM figures show Warrnambool and Ballarat have received less than half their average rain since the El Nino showed signs of strengthening in August last year. Other centres such as Bendigo, Echuca, Horsham, Mortlake, Nhill, Portland and Swan Hill received slightly more than half their usual rain.

On the flip side, Bairnsdale, Omeo, Sale, Yarrawonga and Griffith, Hay and Narrandera in NSW received well above-average rain over the same period.

The BOM said with the surface of the Pacific Ocean near the equator cooling 0.5C since the El Nino peaked late last year, climate models suggested a return to neutral weather patterns was likely from April.

BOM senior climatologist Robyn Duell said the El Nino had followed a “quite classic” pattern in developing and peaking “and now it is declining at a time of the year that (we’d expect)”.

“Even though it is declining, it is still strong enough to continue influencing the climate,” Ms Duell said.

But she acknowledged the chance of the El Nino re-­intensifying was “the least likely scenario”.

Ms Duell said the impact of the current El Nino was “somewhat buffered” by the “competing influence” of an abnormally warm Indian Ocean, which delivered ­increased rain to parts of ­Australia.

Ms Duell said a study of ocean temperatures, atmospheric response and changes to atmospheric pressure indicated this El Nino was “one of the biggest three that we’ve seen: ’97-’98 and ’82-’83 were comparable to this event”.

Victorian Farmers Federation grains president Brett Hosking said many farmers in western Victoria had felt the “full brunt” of El Nino.

“That hot weather in the first week of October was ­unprecedented … our crops aren’t bred for those conditions, and even growers who did have reasonably good crops at that point certainly suffered significant losses,” he said.

“We’ve gone through two El Ninos in a row and they tell me it would be a world record to achieve three in a row, so hopefully that’s a good sign that we won’t be seeing ­another one this year.”

@james_wagstaff