Forecast hot temperatures to hurt crops in Victoria’s Mallee and Wimmera
FORECAST high temperatures this weekend could deliver a cruel season-ending blow to crops across parts of western and northern Victoria.
FORECAST high temperatures this weekend could deliver a cruel season-ending blow to crops across parts of western and northern Victoria.
Farmers are on alert with the mercury forecast to close in on 40C on the back of a dry start to the crucial spring finishing period for crops. In recent days, some producers have been forced to cut cereal crops, which would usually be harvested for grain from November, for hay, fearing “they won’t last” the weekend’s forecast highs.
The Bureau of Meteorology is tipping five days of warm weather, with parts of Victoria’s parched Mallee, Wimmera and northern country, as well as the NSW Riverina, the most affected.
The heat is expected to arrive tomorrow and persist until a cooler change and chance of isolated showers for parts of southeast Australia next Wednesday.
At Mildura, the mercury is forecast to soar to as high as 39C on Sunday, with expected maximums averaging 36.2C over the next five days — more than 12C above its average for this time of year.
Ouyen and Hopetoun are tipped to average 35.8C from tomorrow until Wednesday, followed by Swan Hill (34.6C), Hay in NSW (34.4C), Kerang and Deniliquin NSW (33.8C), Charlton (33.4C), Echuca (33C), Nhill and Warracknabeal (32,4C) and Horsham (31.6C).
Emerald Grain southeast general manager Ben Fleay said the forecast weather could see crop conditions become “pretty ugly” in a large proportion of the Wimmera, southern Mallee and central Victoria, with the area of concern “growing by the day”.
Mr Fleay said the spike in temperatures could lead to “possible crop abandonment and if not, declining yields”.
“Some of the earlier crops should be right, and as long as it doesn’t get cooked, canola should hang on and barley should get home — albeit the quality might be a little bit mixed,” he said. “It is probably just the wheat, being that little bit later maturing, that is going to struggle to finish and fill.
“With five or six days of mid to high 30Cs — even if they get through that and drag some rain they might be OK, but if they get through it, have another cool change and it gets hot again — which is possibly on the horizon — it might finish the crops off.”
Birchip Cropping Group chief executive Chris Souness said if the coming forecast weather was realised, “it would do only harm”.
“We won’t know the full extent until after but having consecutive days above 30C, some crops will stop and any yield potential will be greatly reduced — and it looks like it is hitting all of southeast Australia.”
Wycheproof farmer Stuart McLean said “those crops that are still hanging on in some areas are probably going to be put under severe stress, and in some areas where the crops are already under severe stress, it will probably completely finish them off”.
“Where the crops have been stressed already, there’s not enough there to cut (for hay) — it’s not a viable proposition,” Mr McLean said.
“(Even) some of these crops that are fairly well advanced ... if it gets to 35C, with a hot north wind, it will probably burn half the heads off.
“It could be very, very serious. In this part of the world, for some people, it is their second failure in a row. And both years they’ve put crops in — it’s not as if we’ve had a prolonged drought, we’ve had seasonal breaks and then we’ve had seasonal failures.”
Horsham farmer Geoff Rethus said his crops were “hanging in all right” leading up to this weekend’s hot temperatures.
“With the weather we’ve been having they would probably produce grain, but with this heat the lentils are starting to feel a bit of dryness — and they’re just flowering — so it will have a fair impact on those,” Mr Rethus said.
“And even some of the cereals, we’ll lose part of the (crop) heads I expect, even though they look all right now and the grain is filling them.”
Victorian Farmers Federation grains president Brett Hosking said the weekend temperatures could “knock things about” for grain growers. “But even in a good year, weather like this is going to present challenges,” Mr Hosking said. “All we can do is hope and pray for rain.”
Mr Hosking said “any rain that comes along is going to be beneficial” to struggling crops but admitted 25mm was needed “to make a significant difference”.
He said while some farmers were cutting hay while they were still green, their window too was closing. “I know with a lot of my cereals, they’re a whisker past that point,” he said.
Mr Fleay said crops in southern NSW had a “fair bit of reserve” in terms of moisture following good winter and spring rain.
“Hopefully they can hang on and get through the next week,” he said.
“Most of the barley and canola should get home, it’s just the probably the wheat that needs a rain to meet potential.”
In Victoria, he said crops in parts of the southwest and Western District, northern Mallee and the northwest still looked good, as did “anywhere east of Elmore, which has been catching those fronts that southern NSW has been getting”.
Bureau of Meteorology duty forecaster Stuart Coombs said a front moving through Victoria on Tuesday would “act to turn the winds from these quite hot north to northwesterly flows around to southwest to southerlies, and that will drop the temperature quite dramatically”.
“In the south of the state, we’ll probably see temperatures back into the middle or upper teens, and north of the Divide, from the high teens to the low 20s,” Mr Coombs said.
“It will provide considerable relief from the heat but unfortunately there is not much in the way of rain with isolated showers on and south of the Divide ... probably not more than a couple of millimetres here and there ... while remaining dry in the north.”
HEAT WAVE
Forecast temperatures for the next five days
CHARLTON
Friday: 30C
Saturday: 33C
Sunday: 33C
Monday: 36C
Tuesday: 35C
Average: 33.4C
DENILIQUIN, NSW
Friday: 29C
Saturday: 32C
Sunday: 35C
Monday: 36C
Tuesday: 37C
Average: 33.8C
ECHUCA
Friday: 27C
Saturday: 32C
Sunday: 34C
Monday: 36C
Tuesday: 36C
Average: 33C
HAY, NSW
Friday: 29C
Saturday: 33C
Sunday: 36C
Monday: 37C
Tuesday: 37C
Average: 34.4C
HOPETOUN
Friday: 31C
Saturday: 36C
Sunday: 37C
Monday: 39C
Tuesday: 36C
Average: 35.8C
HORSHAM
Friday: 27C
Saturday: 32C
Sunday: 33C
Monday: 35C
Tuesday: 31C
Average: 31.6C
KERANG
Friday: 28C
Saturday: 33C
Sunday: 35C
Monday: 37C
Tuesday: 36C
Average: 33.8C
MILDURA
Friday: 31C
Saturday: 36C
Sunday: 38C
Monday: 39C
Tuesday: 37C
Average: 36.2C
NHILL
Friday: 29C
Saturday: 33C
Sunday: 33C
Monday: 36C
Tuesday: 31C
Average: 32.4C
OUYEN
Friday: 31C
Saturday: 36C
Sunday: 34C
Monday: 36C
Tuesday: 36C
Average: 35.8C
SWAN HILL
Friday: 29C
Saturday: 34C
Sunday: 36C
Monday: 38C
Tuesday: 36C
Average: 34.6C
WARRACKNABEAL
Friday: 29C
Saturday: 33C
Sunday: 32C
Monday: 35C
Tuesday: 34C
Average: 32.4C
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