Flood forecasts: Southeast Australia told to be on alert

Parts of Australia have been warned to be on heightened flood watch this summer — who’s most at risk?

SOUTHEAST Australia has been warned to be on heightened flood watch this summer, with wetter-than-average conditions forecast.

The Bureau of Meteorology this week released its weather outlook for December, January and February, which pointed to above-average rainfall for across most of Australia, except the west coast of Tasmania, and warmer-than-average daytime temperatures across the southeast.

BOM senior meteorologist Robyn Duell said with conditions “likely to be wetter-than-normal almost everywhere this summer” there was an increased chance of widespread flooding “where soils are already wet”.

BOM senior hydrologist Dr Paul Feikema said there had been a continued increase in catchment soil moisture during November, particularly in Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria.

“We are now expecting high and near-median stream flows at 70 per cent of locations for November to January,” Dr Feikema said. “These are likely to occur in the southeast where soils are relatively wet and there is a higher chance of above-median rainfall – so that’s where the risk of widespread flooding are greatest.”

Ms Duell said the wetter outlook was caused by “a classic la Nina pattern present in the Pacific Ocean with cooler-than-usual water near the equator in the central and eastern Pacific and warmer-than-usual water surrounding Australia”.

“That warm water near Australia means there is more moisture in the air which can rain out with weather systems, storms and the monsoon,” she said. “That warm water also increases the risks of tropical cyclones developing near Australia.”

This year has been wetter-than-average across most parts of southeast Australia. Of the 172 weather stations in Victoria, NSW, southern Queensland and southeast South Australia routinely monitored by The Weekly Times, 76 have already equalled or bested their long-term calendar year averages with six weeks of 2020 remaining. A further 41 are tracking at 90 per cent or more of their 12-month averages.

The wettest centres have been in NSW with Nowra, on the south coast, leading the charge with 1580mm of rain for the year to date – or almost double its 872mm 12-month average. West of the Great Dividing Range, Forbes has recorded 740mm or 154 per cent its annual average followed by Condobolin (615mm or 153 per cent) and West Wyalong (656mm or 152 per cent).

The wettest centres in Victoria compared to the long-term average are Nhill (406mm or 122 per cent), Hopetoun (356mm or 121 per cent), Ararat (689mm or 118 per cent) and Shepparton (492mm or 114 per cent).

In Queensland, the wettest-than-average centres so far are Birdsville (183mm or 140 per cent) and Thargomindah (293mm or 110 per cent) while Port Augusta (277mm or 132 per cent), Kingscote (501mm or 113 per cent) and Lameroo (346mm or 113 per cent) have fared the best in South Australia.

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