Dry times ahead: Japan and US predict return to El Nino next winter

It’s early days but Japan’s and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration climate models point to El Nino’s return.

Global climate models are warning another El Nino is set to dry out eastern Australia next winter.

The Japanese Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology’s latest SINTEX model predicts “the possibility of an El Nino occurrence in the boreal summer (Australian winter) of 2023”.

The models precipitation index, measured in millimetres per day, shows eastern Australia’s rainfall remaining close to average over summer, before dropping away as El Nino takes hold over Autumn and winter 2023.

JAMSTEC SINTEX-F model run - December 2022 to February 2023 rainfall (mm from average)

Japanese climate model forecast Summer

JAMSTEC SINTEX-F model run - March to May 2023 rainfall (mm from average)

Japanese SINTEX climate model autumn 2023

JAMSTEC SINTEX-F model run - June to August 2023 rainfall (mm from average)

Japanese SINTEX model winter 2023

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration analysis of global climate models backs the Japanese forecast, indicating a rise in the risk of another El Nino from early 2023.

US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - El Nino probability in red

NOAAA has also analysed 16 global climate models, from NASA, France and the UK to the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator, showing on average they predict the NINO 3-4 seas surface temperature anomaly is headed to above the 0.5 threshold that the US administration uses to declare an El Nino.

However, because the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s own model uses a higher threshold of 0.8, its forecast remains neutral.

BOM climate model edges towards El Nino threshold