BOM defends El Nino forecast

The Bureau of Meteorology has defended its El Nino forecasting, citing record-breaking dry conditions in some parts of the country from August-October in 2023.

The Bureau of Meterology has defended its forecasting of an El Nino weather event, pointing to record-breaking dry conditions in parts of the country at the back-end of 2023.

Frustrated farmers have lashed out at the bureau in recent weeks, blaming its El Nino forecast for spooking livestock markets and dampening producer’ confidence.

It comes as some of the wettest weather ever recorded in Victoria swept across the state this month.

In a statement to The Weekly Times, a BOM spokesperson said the long-range forecast published in August last year indicated “the likely development of both a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and El Nino event, and for below median rainfall for large areas of the country”.

August to October was the driest such period on record for the country, according to the bureau, with September last year the driest September on record, and the second driest month ever on record.

The bureau’s long-range forecast for summer, which was published in November last year, suggested a “neutral to increased likelihood of above average rainfall across much of the continent” for December and January.

Bureau of Meteorology senior meteorologist Bri Macpherson said the first nine days of January were the wettest for the state on record, but expected rainfall to ease as the week passed. 


“If we had no further rainfall … this month would still be in the top 20 wettest Januarys on record,” Ms Macpherson said last week.

According to the bureau’s statement, ongoing observations of ocean and land surfaces will be incorporated into forecast systems, with continuous updates for the community.