US NOAA forecast: El Nino chances to fade in 2024

The latest US forecasts have predicted El Nino conditions will fade to neutral in the Pacific next year, bringing relief to eastern Australian farmers.

The US NOAA Climate Prediction Centre says El Nino’s stranglehold on Australia’s predicted rainfall will loosen in late Autumn to early winter next year.

The chances of an El Nino crippling Australia’s 2024 cropping season are fading, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.

The centre’s October report, released this week, states that while the chances of El Nino extending through to January-March next year are 95 per cent, “thereafter, chances of El Nino gradually decrease, with a possible return of ENSO-neutral in May-July 2024”.

El Nino's drying influence over Australia is likely to fade next winter

By late Autumn to early winter the NOAA’s climate model predicts the probability of neutral conditions will surpass 50 per cent, as that of an El Nino falls.

El Nino typically leads to reduced spring and early summer rainfall for eastern Australia, and warmer days for the southern two-thirds of the country.