Trees spark surge in powerline fires despite $1bn safety spent

Vegetation hitting powerlines has sparked a huge surge in ground fires, despite claims from the Victorian government. See the figures.

Trees are increasingly sparking powerline fires.

Vegetation hitting powerlines sparked a 49 per cent surge in ground fires in 2020-21, despite the Victorian government claiming last week its $1bn spend of taxpayers’ money on mitigating powerline fires is working.

Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio stated the $1bn spend on giant safety switches – Rapid Earth Fault Current Limiters – in 45 zone substations by April 30 next year was already preventing fires starting by shutting off powerlinesthat came in contact with vegetation.

“The Powerline Bushfire Safety Program has delivered on its promise to significantly reduce the risk of bushfires started by bare-wire powerlines,” Ms D’Ambrosio told the media, based on an independent report she released that was full of qualifications on the accuracy of its findings.

Superficially, the Aurecon report appears to back the minister’s claim by stating the number of powerline fires has fallen from an average of 870 a year from 2006-10 (including Black Saturday) to be “consistently below 650” a year from 2016-17 to 2019-20.

But specialist electrical engineers Bill Carman and David Sweeting, as well as bushfire scientist Professor Kevin Tolhurst, have questioned the analysis, saying it was not peer reviewed and that comparing just four years leading up to and including Black Saturday to four recent years was inadequate.

The number of powerline ground fires by cause 2010-11 to 2020-21. Source: Energy Safe Victoria

Professor Tolhurst said it was difficult to get accurate fire-start statistics to begin with and that any analysis “has to look at the fire danger ratings” in those years.

Even the Aurecon report’s authors, who first submitted their draft to Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning bureaucrats in October 2020, stated “more data is needed to confirm this trend and account for the long-term seasonality of the weather”.

Document control records also show the report went through four rounds of review between the Aurecon authors and DELWP bureaucrats before it was accepted.

In the meantime Energy Safety Victoria has reported: “fires from tree contact have increased again this year (2020-21) and are now 49 per cent above the (2010-2020) historic average, mostly due to vegetation blowing and falling on to powerlines from outside the clearance space”.

Even powerline fires caused by connection faults were still up 27 per cent in the 12 months to June 30 last year compared to the 10-year average.

Overall ESV data on ground fires caused by Victoria’s powerlines and poles shows no clear trend, with the results for the past decade varying enormously.

The Aurecon report did reveal that ultimately the government will have spent $1.068bn on the REFCL rollout by May next year, twice the $500m estimate it originally forecast in 2011.

Ultimately it will be electricity consumers in regional Victoria who will pay the cost of this blowout, through the supply charge on their electricity bills.