Retail sales rush tipped as shoppers hold out for deep discounts
Pre-Christmas sales will kick into high gear today, with retailers pinning their hopes on a record spending splurge over the weekend following a challenging year.
Black Friday sales will kick into gear on Friday, with retailers pinning their hopes on a record spending splurge over the weekend following a challenging year underlined by a cost of living crisis and cautious consumer spending.
The annual sales event has overtaken Boxing Day as the biggest of the year, with this year’s spending spree expected to reach a record $6.8bn over the four-day period from Black Friday to Cyber Monday.
Retail analyst Trent Rigby said that while many retailers had brought forward their discounts to as early as October, most of the sales rush would occur over the coming days as shoppers searched for the best offers on products ranging from fashion to electronics and big name brands.
“Last year it took over the whole of November and this year we saw some sales from mid to early October, so retailers are pushing it really hard, and it’s gone from a four-day sale period to a month or more,” he said.
“What was interesting last year is even though there was so much sales activity from early November, a lot of consumers were actually holding off until the actual weekend because they knew that’s when the best deals and the best value is. We’re seeing the same thing happen this year as well ... and I think this weekend coming is going to be pretty intense.
“Consumers are a lot cleverer than what we give them credit for and they know when they’re going to get that best deal.”
The Australian Retailers Association and Roy Morgan predict Australian shoppers will spend a record $6.8bn over the four days from Black Friday to Cyber Monday - a 4 per cent increase from last year.
But Queensland University of Technology marketing and consumer behaviour professor Gary Mortimer warned that the higher than expected inflation figure of 3.8 per cent, released earlier this week, combined with the Reserve Bank’s decision to hold interest rates in November, may dampen consumer confidence.
“There’s two conflicting narratives at the moment,” he said.
“Retailers are saying they’re expecting great results, but the announcement of the increase in headline inflation this week may reduce consumer confidence leading into this sales event.”
Mr Mortimer added that this year’s sales event could prove challenging for some smaller retailers unable to compete with the big end of town.
“For bigger businesses, it’s usually factored into their margins,” he said.
“But for smaller businesses – some don’t want to discount at 40, 50, 60 per cent because it erodes their margins, but they feel like they’re forced to do so.
“If they don’t, competitors across the road will. Sometimes they find the only way to get shoppers through the door is by discounting.”
Mr Mortimer’s comments are reflected in recent research from small business accounting software provider Xero, which shows many smaller businesses are limiting their discounting this year, or sitting it out altogether.
According to its research, more than half of small businesses (58 per cent) say Black Friday has overtaken Boxing Day as Australiaʼs biggest sales event, and almost two thirds feel under pressure to compete with the big brands.
Yet fewer small businesses are participating in 2025, with just 39 per cent committing to taking part in the sales event, and nearly a third saying they can’t afford to offer discounts given the rising costs of doing business.
For those who are participating, Mr Rigby said the most in demand items were likely to be electronics, technology, beauty, sport and fashion products, and big name, premium brands like Dyson, Nespresso, Sony, Apple and Nike, with most of the sales activity done online rather than in-store.
“The Black Friday period is a really good indicator for a lot of retailers of how they do for December and January – it’s a bit of a litmus test,” he said.
“It is now ingrained in Australian consumers, and is now one of the key, if not the key, retail event in the Australian retail calendar. A lot of businesses, whether big or small, have been planning it now for 12 months.”
A Myer spokesperson said Black Friday was one of the biggest sales events of the year for the department store, and customers were becoming increasingly savvy with their spending.
“Shoppers are becoming more organised and strategic, planning ahead so they make the most of all the deals on offer. People are shopping across beauty, fashion, homewares and gifting, with a clear focus on value,” the spokesperson said.
“This year we’re seeing strong interest in cookware and kitchenware as customers prepare for entertaining this festive season. Fashion continues to perform well, and beauty remains a popular choice.”
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Originally published as Retail sales rush tipped as shoppers hold out for deep discounts
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