Riverina and Victorian farmers scanning the radar for crucial spring rain

Some farmers have recorded just 115mm in five months, leaving their season hanging by a thread, but forecasted spring rain could save their fortunes.

Spring rain could still turn around the fortunes of southeastern Australian farmers as they scan the forecasts looking for significant falls.

And the season has been so unusual that the prospects for a good spring not only vary district by district, but within a few kilometres of each other.

In southern NSW, the patchiness of the season is remarkable according to Lockhart sheep producer Andrew Bouffler.

“For us, it has been a really tricky season with 115mm since March,” Mr Bouffler said.

“But 10km away, the season is as good as it has ever been – one weekend recently we got 4mm and not so far away, they got 30-40mm.”

Mr Bouffler held his annual ram sale last week and said he had no doubt the windy week leading up to the fixture, with 30C temperatures and “howling winds” at the auction, sapped confidence.

“It’s hard to pick – there are big areas north of the Murrumbidgee River that are doing so well, but we are one of the place that has consistently missed the rain and could be cutting our crops for hay within two weeks,” he said.

Andrew Bouffler and his daughter Ruby on their property Valera via Lockhart. Picture: Michael Frogley.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s September climate outlook shows a favourable forecast for parched Victorian and southern NSW farmers, with greater than median rainfall tipped to fall in the week to September 19 across both regions.

The outlook shows the majority of Victoria has a 55-65 per cent chance of exceeding median rainfall in the next week, while northern Victoria and the NSW Riverina have a 65-70 per cent chance.

The outlook shows a 35 per cent chance of Bendigo recording more than 15mm between September 13 and 19, while there is a 24 per cent chance cropping farmers in the state’s west at Warracknabeal could receive more than 14mm during the same time period.

Parched farmers in the state’s Western District at Hamilton have a 57 per cent chance of receiving more than 12mm between September 13 and 19, while in the state’s northeast at Wangaratta there is a 39 per cent chance more than 21mm could fall.

Meanwhile, across the border in the NSW Riverina, there is a 43 per cent chance of more than 18mm at Henty and the same chance of more than 14mm falling at Jerilderie.

Broadening the forecast to the month of October, both Victoria and NSW Riverina have a 50-65 per cent of exceeding median rainfall.

“Most of eastern Australia is likely to have above average rainfall. Rainfall is more likely to be in the typical seasonal range for some southern and central areas,” BOM senior climatologist Lynette Bettio said during the spring 2024 climate and water long-range forecast.

“The Indian Ocean Dipole and El Nino – Southern Oscillation are both neutral. Our forecast for spring shows rainfall is likely to be above average in large parts of the east.”

Swan Hill Chemicals’ Burton Roberts said it had been a very dry season and rain had been hit and miss in northwest Victoria.

While some forecasts were predicting rain later in the week, he said he would “believe it when we see it”.

“The biggest issues has been the wind in the past couple of weeks, which has pulled what moisture was there from the country,” Mr Roberts said.

“It’s been a very difficult season.”

But other areas had been more fortunate.

Elders Hamilton’s stud stock manager Ross Milne said rain over the past couple of months meant southwest Victoria was “going along all right”.

Elders auctioneer and stud stock manager Ross Milne (left). Picture: Andy Rogers

“If we had another 25-50mm, it would go a long way to easing the anxiety and we would get some kind of spring,” Mr Milne said.

“These 5-10mm falls mean the grass is getting away a bit more and we could be on track to get a good spring as long as the rain keeps coming and it doesn’t get too hot.”

But in the state’s northeast, David McDonald from Rosewhite has used two years of hay and silage and had to buy in more to keep his herd of Angus cattle going.

The traditionally safe country might still get a spring, but he said it had been tough going over winter.

David McDonald from Rosewhite. Picture: Zoe Phillips

“With a bit more rain, we might be OK and we used giberellic acid on grass and locked our cows up in a smaller area to try to grow feed on the rest of the farm,” Mr McDonald said.

“Our cows have lost condition but the calves are going well, but when we come to sell them, they will be lighter than they usually are.”

Mr McDonald said the saving grace for the tight season in his area was that other regions were not suffering too, which boosted demand for cattle.

Corryong agent Justin Costello from Costello Rural said farmers in his district were in limbo after facing one of the toughest autumn winter periods in memory.

Justin Costello, Costello Rural, Corryong.

“We could still get a spring and we are optimistic and this is some of the most reliable country you can get, but not this year,” Mr Costello said.

He said dairy and beef farmers had locked up paddocks in anticipation of growing feed for hay and silage this year, and growth had been minimal.

“Two weeks ago, we were still sending cattle away on agistment and then we got a bit of rain and we became more optimistic,” he said.

“But if we don’t get rain in two weeks, then hay and silage yields will be done, some paddocks won’t be worth cutting and those heavy cattle that normally come out of the Upper Murray won’t be finished at the same time.

“It’s not a bleak outlook but we are just all in limbo while we wait to see what happens.”