Red meat prices forecast to jump in 2020

Buying red meat could cost Australia Day barbecue hosts more this year — and not just because of the bushfires.

Meat prices could rise in 2020 off the back of drought. Picture Dean Martin

BUYING steaks and sausages for Australia Day barbecues could cost consumers more at the checkout this year.

Market analyst company IBISWorld has flagged a global rise in the price of beef, with saleyard prices due to increase 12 per cent this year to an average of 500c/kg.

But Mecardo livestock market analyst Matt Dalgleish said it was important consumers understood a rise in the cost of meat was not solely due to recent bushfires.

“(Bushfires) have been topical, and used as a reason, but prices were forecast to rise already,” Mr Dalgleish said.

“Despite large livestock populations in those (fire-­affected) areas, and people certainly have lost stock, if you look at the hectares burnt, a lot of the area was native forest area with not a huge amount of stock losses.”

IBISWorld senior industry analyst Matthew Reeves said a tough year was already on the cards for Australian producers heading into 2020.

“This year was initially expected to be a disaster for cattle farmers, with farmers forced to turn off cattle herds amid lack of water and feed supply, crushing beef prices,” Mr Reeves said.

“However, beef prices are now expected to rise by over 12 per cent to $5 a kilogram in 2020, as global demand surges for pork substitutes.”

Mr Dalgleish said before bushfires ripped through agricultural land, particularly on Kangaroo Island, Australia was already facing the prospect of the smallest lamb flock in about 100 years.

“The flock is so low, due to a rundown of feeding ewes as a reaction to the drought, particularly in NSW, then flowing into a very low lamb drop this season,” he said. “That’s probably feeding more into lamb prices than the bushfires.

“The beef herd is the lowest in about 30 years, and the drought was compounding that … we’re already facing a tight season, and a price rise would have come with or without the fires. To assign a price rise purely on that is a bit soon.”