Red meat exports forecast to buoy Aussie ag to $91bn industry

Demand for Australia red meat products is putting the sector’s target of becoming a $100bn industry by 2030 within reach.

The farming sector’s ambitious goal of becoming a $100bn industry by 2030 remains in sight, with a federal government agency forecasting the value of production to hit $91bn next financial year.

But strong forecasts for 2024-25 and 2025-26 have been tempered by a warning on global instability since the return of US president Donald Trump to the White House.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences’ latest report predicts the agricultural sector will record its third strongest year in 2025-26, buoyed by soaring demand for Australian red meat and the third largest national winter crop of 59.8 million tonnes.

This is despite a slight dip in the production value forecast for the 12 months to June 30, when the value of the nation’s agricultural production is tipped to round out at $92bn.

ABARES executive director Jared Greenville said livestock and livestock products are expected to set a new record value of $40bn.

“Demand for red meat is reflected in both strong export volumes and rising export prices, which has led to the total value of meat exports expected to hit $22bn this financial year,” Dr Greenville said.

Last year Australia witnessed unprecedented demand for its red meat, with records broken for beef, lamb, mutton and goatmeat exports.

The US was the biggest buyer, having been in the grips of a prolonged drought that has led to its smallest cattle herd in 72 years.

The ABARES report flags “significant uncertainty” due to the flurry of changes the US government has announced since Trump’s inauguration in January, including new tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, and threats of future “global tariffs”.

“Potential further changes to global trade policies present key downside risks to the near-term global economic outlook given their capacity to disrupt global supply chains, raise input costs and inflationary pressures, and constrain economic activity,” the report said.

But Australian farmers remained in a strong position to weather any geopolitical maelstroms given no tariffs have been flagged for farming products and domestic gross domestic production growth is expected to increase by 2.4 per cent in 2025-26.

In its latest crop report, ABARES forecasts summer crop production to fall slightly in 2024-25 to 4.7m tonnes, but remain 28 per cent above the 10-year average to 2023-24.

Grain yields were better than expected late last year, with grain receival data showing total winter crop production up 19 per cent in Western Australia and 6 per cent in New South Wales compared to December forecasts.

Meanwhile farm profits are tipped to rise for those with broadacre or livestock businesses.