Victorian election 2022: Euroa, Benambra and Ovens Valley ready for independent challenges

Three seats in Victoria’s northeast have been long-time Coalition strongholds, but the rise of independents should be reason for concern, according to an expert.

Three one-time Coalition strongholds in northeast Victoria are in danger of falling to independent challengers at the November state election, according to a political expert.

The prediction comes hot on the heels of the ongoing success of independents in the seat of Indi at a federal level and general antipathy towards major parties.

Following Helen Haines’ retention of Indi with an increased majority and the success of other “Teal Independents” at the federal election, attention has turned to state seats across Dr Haines electorate at November’s Victorian poll.

Benambra, Ovens Valley and Euroa are presently held by Coalition MPs, Bill Tilley, Tim McCurdy and Steph Ryan, who announced her resignation from politics this week.

Member for Benambra Bill Tilley.

Monash University political scientist Zareh Ghazarian said strong independent campaigns being launched in northeast seats was a real possibility in the present political climate.

“There is some volatility in the electorate generally,” he said.

“We saw voters at the last federal election were not necessarily thrilled or enthusiastic about the major parties.

“When you’ve got a fairly long-term member (Ms Ryan) resigning and that electorate volatility, these independents may have a good run.”

Four years ago Benambra MP Liberal Bill Tilley survived his toughest election fight since he entered parliament in 2006 when he saw off a two-pronged independent challenge from Jacqui Hawkins and Jenny O’Connor.

Jacqui Hawkins stood as an independent against Bill Tilley in 2018. Picture: Zoe Phillips

The Weekly Times understands Ms Hawkins will challenge Mr Tilley again. She was contacted for comment.

Meanwhile, in Ovens Valley Tammy Atkins took on National MP Tim McCurdy in 2018.

When asked if she would stand again, Ms Atkins said: “I don’t know. I will leave it at that at this stage.”

But Mr McCurdy said he had “no doubt” he would be facing an independent again with backing from Voices For Indi, the group behind the election success federally of Dr Haines and her predecessor Cathy McGowan.

“I don’t know who they will run, but they will obviously run their preselection process like they always do, pretend they are not a party and be back for sure,” he said.

Tim McCudry is bracing for another independent challenge in Ovens Valley. Picture: NCA NewsWire / David Crosling

But Voices For Indi convener Rob Carolne said the group “doesn’t run candidates”.

“We helped the community identify Helen Haines,” he said.

“Communities have now seen how to do this and know that it is possible.

“If they do or not is up to them.”

In Euroa, retiring MP Steph Ryan won Euroa easily on primary votes at the 2018 election, with an ultra-safe margin of more than 15 per cent. With her retirement, the Liberal Party can now contest the seat under the Coalition agreement and the Voices for Indi movement will also have an opportunity to contest the constituency.