Regional issues bubbling away for Queensland election

As David Crisafulli and Steven Miles criss-cross Queensland in the final days before the state election, a regional issue with federal implications is bubbling away.

It’s D-Day for Queensland this Saturday, with more than five million folks heading to the polls to vote in the state election – with a regional issue bubbling away that could have implications for next year’s federal election.

The Australian Labor Party has won the last three Queensland elections, but early polls are predicting Liberal National Party opposition leader David Crisafulli to beat Labor incumbent Steven Miles, to become the first mainland LNP premier since the red wave swept the nation during the pandemic.

Both candidates have been crisscrossing the state in recent weeks visiting rural and regional communities, with plans to ease cost of living pressures, tackle youth crime and improve housing affordability dominating the agenda.

The polls have tightened in recent days between Opposition Leader David Crisafulli and incumbent Premier Steven Miles.

But Australia National University political expert Dr Andrew Hughes believes there’s another issue bubbling away that could have implications nationwide.

“You have this spread of tourism along the coast, and in Queensland, but as soon as you’re 20 minutes away from the coast you have agricultural land, (with) farm-based and agricultural issues, but also resource issues,” he said.

“So it’s very much reminiscent of the campaigns in Tasmania in the early 80s, politically speaking, where the debate really was centred around economic development. (Whether it can be achieved) by long term growth in tourism or short term development of resources, forestry and the like. You’re going to have this clash in rural and regional communities.

“I think looking at how it plays out in Queensland could be a guide to how it plays out federally.”

Dr Frank Mols, senior lecturer in political science at the University of Queensland, said any LNP win could be a “bellwether kind of phenomenon”, and could be enough to tilt the balance in that direction federally.

However, he does not think the result is yet a “done deal”.

“I think if you read some of the commentary about predictions being made, the ALP has already lost, and that the LNP seems to have the momentum. Personally, I’m a bit sceptical about momentum,” he said.

“I do see more evidence anecdotally of people saying maybe it’s time for a fresh start, but Crisafulli is still a little bit of an unknown quantity.”

Dr Hughes said the campaigns from both candidates have been noticeable for the level of engagement they’ve had with rural and regional communities, and could be a strategy other leaders around the country employ in future campaigns.

“Their willingness to do this says you can’t take regional seats for granted, that seats there are as important as the city, and we might see leaders of both parties make more and more visits to these more marginal regional seats as they have in the past,” he said.

“The power of meet and greets in smaller communities is really still quite noticeable in Australia.”