Federal election: National Party confronts climate dilemma

The Nationals are confronting an identity crisis with experts claiming the party’s muddled stance on net-zero emissions cost the Coalition key city seats.

The Nationals are confronting an identity crisis following the weekend’s federal election with experts claiming the party’s muddled stance on net-zero emissions cost the Coalition key city seats and ate into its own margins.

Resistance from key Nationals, including leader Barnaby Joyce and Senator Matt Canavan, to signing up to a commitment on net zero emissions by 2050 late last year played out at the ballot box, according to Victorian Nationals MP Darren Chester said, with high profile Liberals such as Treasurer Josh Frydenberg considered collateral damage.

Mr Frydenberg, who represented the inner-Melbourne seat of Kooyong and was touted by many as a future Prime Minister, was one of several high-profile scalps of a group of “teal independents” who ran on a pro-climate change policy agenda. The teal independents also picked up the Melbourne seat of Goldstein and triumphed in the Sydney electorates of Wentworth and North Sydney as well as in Curtin in Western Australia.

Helen Haines, a strong voice on climate change in the North East Victorian seat of Indi, also retained her rural seat with an increased margin at the same time the Nationals vote in the electorate went further down from more than 16 per cent in 2016 to less than 4 per cent on Saturday.

The hits to the Nationals on climate change took place up and down the eastern seaboard from coal seats in Queensland including Capricornia and Flynn, with the Nationals recording a 6.6 per cent two-party preferred swing against it in both seats, and further south to NSW and former leader Michael McCormack’s electorate of Riverina, where a swing of 4.4 per cent against the party was recorded.

The Nationals just scraped over the line in Nicholls in northern Victoria where retiring MP Damian Drum sat on a margin of more than 20 per cent three years ago.

In contrast, more moderate voices on climate within the Nationals, Kevin Hogan in Page and Mr Chester in Gippsland, built on already strong margins.

Mr Chester said the Nationals had to “take some responsibility” for Liberal losses in the cities.

“The more extreme views of some colleagues undoubtedly hurt the chances of our city cousins,” he said.

“It was simple and devastatingly effective to say a vote for those moderate Liberals, was a vote for the ‘dinosaurs’ in The Nationals who didn’t believe in climate change.”

Monash University politics expert Zareh Ghazarian said the Coalition paid the ultimate price for not “reading the mood” among voters.

“Its approach to climate change seemed to lack clarity and the government often had trouble explaining exactly how its policy would work,” he said.

“There have always been conservative and progressive elements within the Coalition and they have worked effectively when it has represented the ‘Broad Church’ of views that John Howard had described.”

Farmers For Climate Change chief executive Fiona Davis said food producers understand the opportunities strong climate policy can bring and MPs had to listen.

“Farmers are leading on emissions reduction but we need the energy and transport sectors to catch up and reduce their emissions,” she said.

“Farmers have seen fires, droughts and floods; and seen insurance costs rise as a result.

“They know Bureau of Meteorology records show there were 143 extreme fire danger days in the 2010s compared to 14 in the 1950s and they know average Murray River inflows have reduced by 40 per cent since 2000.”

National Party leader Barnaby Joyce. Picture: Jason Edwards