Federal election 2025: The viability of the Coalition’s nuclear policy
The future of Australia’s energy mix is a hotly contested topic this election period, so how does the Coalition’s nuclear proposal stack up?
The future of Australia’s energy mix is a hotly contested topic and is likely to be one of the key issues over the next five weeks in the lead up to the May 3 federal election.
The Coalition wants to bring nuclear energy to Australia to “keep the lights on”, while Labor plans to continue with its renewables rollout.
Both parties agree on a net-zero target by 2050, but their strategies of how to get there are diametrically opposed. So, how does the nuclear proposal stack up?
WHAT IS THE COALITION’S NUCLEAR PLAN?
In June 2024, Opposition leader Peter Dutton announced a plan to build seven nuclear plants at sites of already shut or retiring coal plants across Australia.
Using existing transmission infrastructure, the proposed stations are for nuclear power plants at Loy Yang in Victoria, Mount Piper Liddell in New South Wales, and Tarong and Callide in Queensland. Smaller modular reactors only would be built at Port Augusta, SA, and Muja, near Collie, in Western Australia.
The Coalition proposes the smaller modular reactor sites will start producing electricity by 2035, with modern larger plants producing electricity by 2037.
Mr Dutton said the plan would save $263bn for Australians, and that it would make electricity cheaper for consumers while protecting national parks, prime agricultural land and coastlines from “industrial scale renewables”.
Under the plan, Australia would “join the other top 19 economies in the world” in adopting nuclear power, said Mr Dutton in his budget reply speech last week.
VIABILITY
The cost and time taken to develop these nuclear sites is at the crux of whether it will help Australia meet its net-zero goal by 2050.
Both parties have critiqued each other for modelling.
The Coalition said in December modelling from consultant Frontier Economics indicated its plan would cost $331bn, while Labor’s renewables rollout would cost $594bn (Labor has estimated its plan will cost $122bn).
However, widespread reporting at the time noted that it was a case of comparing “apples with oranges”.
Modelling for the Coalition’s plan was based on the assumption Australia’s energy demand would be 40 per cent lower in 2050, while that assumption wasn’t extended to Labor’s modelling.
It also spreads the cost of nuclear over the 50-year life span of the plants. Under the 25-year costing window, it means costs can be spread beyond the window.
In terms of providing the electricity needed for Australia, the Climate Council of Australia found that building 11 gigawatts of nuclear capacity would cost a minimum of $116bn, and up to $600bn, but would only provide 15 per cent of the electricity Australia needs by 2050.
In comparison, they estimated Labor’s current plan to power the national grid would cost $383bn, but provide 100 per cent of the electricity the National Electricity Market needs.
The Coalition argued the methodology used to create the $600bn number was not credible and should be dismissed.
In regards to time taken to build these plants, the CSIRO and AEMO report that nuclear power would take at least 15 years to deploy in Australia. If development started this year it would take us to at least 2040.
While some countries including Pakistan, China and the UAE were able to build plants in 6-8 years, it is expected Australia’s higher level of democracy would lead to increased consultation, pushing out the time taken.
Western democracies Finland and the United States had development times of 17 and 21 years respectively.
COST TO CONSUMERS
Peter Dutton has said that nuclear power will result in cheaper electricity for consumers, but the CSIRO and AEMO found the cost of electricity from nuclear power would be at least two times more expensive than that of renewables.
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said “the cost of electricity generated from nuclear plants would likely be 1.5 to 3.8 times the current cost of electricity generation in eastern Australia”.
BARRIERS
Currently nuclear energy is banned under federal legislation, while each state also has their own ban. All would need to be overturned for nuclear development, and state premiers including Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan, NSW Premier Chris Minns and Queensland Premier David Crisafulli have all spoken against the nuclear proposal.
The smaller modular reactors (which are proposed for the sites in WA and SA) are not currently commercially available, and won’t be until the late 2030s to mid-2040s, according to the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences & Engineering.
Another consideration is the amount of water needed to cool these plants. While the plants would have access to the water sources that currently power the coal plants, concerns have arisen over whether there will be enough water available.
Analysis from the Queensland Conservation Council found that the water requirements would be more than double the current water allocation for the Callide power station, and 55 per cent higher than the current allocation for the Tarong power station.
Analysis from the Australian Conservation Foundation shows an average-sized 1GW nuclear reactor consumed 25 per cent more water than an equivalent coal-fired power station would in a day.
COMMUNITY REACTION
Research firm 89 Degrees East polled 1248 people living across Australia in the proposed nuclear sites, on their support for building nuclear reactors.
The results of those polled who support building nuclear was 27 per cent in Gladstone supported; 24 per cent in the rest of Central Queensland, 24 per cent in Bunbury; 22 per cent in Central West Orana; 32 per cent in Hunter; and 31 per cent in Gippsland.
The Electrical Trades Union has launched a $2m ad campaign against the proposal to run in battleground electorates, including Dutton’s own seat of Dickson in Queensland.
GAS PLAN
In addition to the nuclear plan, Mr Dutton also said the Coalition would ramp up domestic gas production in the more immediate term.
In his budget supply speech he said they would be launching a National Gas Plan, in a bid to push prices down for new gas sales to below $10 per gigajoule. The market currently has gas at $14 per kilojoule.
This will include an east coast gas reservation where between 50-100 petajoules of gas earmarked for exports will be delivered to the domestic market.
The Coalition has not yet released modelling on how the gas reservation would lead to a reduction in pricing, but has promised to do so.
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