Federal Election: Wannon, Mallee, Bendigo, Ballarat
There’s plenty to examine in the often-overlooked safe electorates that cover regional Victoria and NSW. See our seat by seat breakdown.
Australia is set to discover on Saturday what form of government will lead the nation in the coming three years.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison is seeking a fourth term for the Coalition while Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese is aiming to return Labor to office after nine years on the opposition benches.
There is a third option, that of a hung parliament. Crossbench MPs from regional Australia such as Indi MP Helen Haines, Kennedy MP Bob Katter and Mayo MP Rebekha Sharkie would play a key role in a balance of power scenario.
While The Weekly Times has profiled hot seats such as Nicholls, Indi and Corangamite in the past few weeks, there’s plenty to examine in the often-overlooked safe electorates that cover regional Victoria and NSW.
WANNON
(Liberal: 10.2 per cent)
Famously Malcolm Fraser’s electorate for three decades, Wannon has stayed Liberal blue even if the Squire of Nareen didn’t. Now held by Trade Minister Dan Tehan, the latest redistribution has pushed the electorate boundary eastwards towards Winchelsea and the Surf Coast for the first time. While other former Liberal strongholds such as Kooyong and Goldstein are poised to leave the party on election night, bookmakers tip Wannon to stay blue. Mr Tehan is facing challenges from former Glenelg Shire mayor Gilbert Wilson, who is running as the Labor candidate, and former ABC personality Alex Dyson, who is running as an independent for the second time.
BALLARAT
(Labor: 10.2 per cent)
Both the Liberal and Labor parties have strong historical ties to the region but it is the latter that firmly has a grip on the Eureka Stockade city these days. Ballaarat’s first MP (there was an extra A in those days), was then PM Alfred Deakin — one of the godfathers of Liberalism in Australia. Former social worker Catherine King won the seat for Labor at the 2001 election, one of the few bright spots for the ALP on a good night for the Howard Government. She looks set to easily win a seventh term with lawyer Ben Green running as the Liberal candidate.
MALLEE
(National: 15.7 per cent)
One of the safest Coalition seats in the federation, the National Party have held the north-western corner of Victoria since the constituency was formed at the dawn of the Menzies era.
Five Nationals MPs have held the seat with Mildura based social worker Anne Webster the constituency’s first female representative. Dr Webster replaced former Victorian Farmers Federation president Andrew Broad as the seat’s MP after Mr Broad was embroiled in a magazine scandal. Farmer and journalist Sophia Baldwin is the independent challenger while Maryborough-based community worker Carole Hart is Labor’s candidate.
BENDIGO
(Labor- 8.9 per cent)
During his career, controversial PM Billy Hughes was a member and led several parties - Labor, Nationalist, United Australia and Liberal. The one he never joined was the Country Party. He said he ‘had to draw the line somewhere’. Hughes had the same promiscuous attitude to seats, representing four including Bendigo during his career. The seat used to swing between Liberal and Labor but now is firmly in the ALP camp. Former union organiser Lisa Chesters has held the seat for Labor since the 2013 election and is odds-on favourite to win a fourth term on Saturday.
MCEWEN
(Labor: 5.3 per cent)
Throughout the 1990s and 2000s, political watchers had a close eye on McEwen every election cycle. The central Victorian seat has see-sawed between urban and rural throughout its existence with Howard government minister Fran Bailey coming close to defeat on several election nights, only to come back from the brink. Labor’s Rob Mitchell came close to winning in the 2007 Ruddslide and when Ms Bailey retired in 2010, won the electorate with ease. However, Scott Morrison has made several campaign stops to McEwen in this campaign, suggesting the Coalition may be in with a shot at winning the seat back.
GIPPSLAND
(Nationals: 16.7 per cent)
The seat formerly occupied by Coalition government ministers Peter Nixon and Peter McGauran, Gippsland has had a century long unbroken hold by Conservative MPs.
Another National Darren Chester, one of three former journalists turned MPs in the east of the state, is chasing a fifth successive election win against a field of fresh rivals from the 2019 election.
The most notable rival is Marjorie Thorpe, the mother of Greens Senator Lidia Thorpe. Unlike Nicholls in the north of the state Gippsland is safely predicted to stay in Nationals’ hands on Saturday night.
MONASH
(Liberal: 6.9 per cent)
Previously known as McMillan before the change to its present name in the lead-up to the last election.
In the most recent redistribution Monash has lost the surging population areas west of Bunyip to La Trobe.
Liberal Russell Broadbent holds the seat still regarded as safe Liberal territory despite big centres such as Warragul and Drouin also growing at breakneck pace.
Labor last won McMillan in 2001 and will be represented again by former Baw Baw Shire councillor Jessica O’Donnell.
Phillip Island lawyer Deb Leonard is also running as an independent with support from a “Voices” movement.
EDEN-MONARO
(Labor: 0.9 per cent)
Although losing its “bellwether” status, the seat wrapping around Canberra, across to the coastal towns of Merimbula and Eden and major agricultural areas of Cooma and Bega, is always a must watch on election night.
Labor’s Kirsty McBain retained the seat for Labor at a byelection when 2019 election winner Mike Kelly retired due to ill-health.
The Liberal assault was held up when it became part of the factional warfare within the party weeks out from the election being called.
Jerry Nockles, who was eventually chosen, has previously worked for former Eden-Monaro Peter Hendy and Senator Jim Molan.
RIVERINA
(Nationals: 19.5 per cent)
A federation seat, Riverina is a safe hold for the Nationals with former Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack the local member since 2010.
His hometown of Wagga is the capital of the Riverina, but Young, West Wyalong and Gundagai are among the important agricultural areas of his patch.
The Nationals had a 100 per cent success rate at the seat’s 83 booths three years ago when Mr McCormack faced only three rivals.
But this time around he has to contend with a field double the size including Labor’s Mark Jefferson, a small business owner, who contested the 2019 poll.
FARRER
(Liberal: 19.8 per cent)
Once the seat of National Party leader and trains buff, the late Tim Fischer, Farrer has been held by current Morrison government minister Sussan Ley since 2001.
Three years ago she survived an all out assault from Albury mayor Kevin Mack, whose campaign was bankrolled by disgruntled irrigators to the west.
Three rivals of Ms Ley in 2022 also have past and present connections to Albury Council.
Labor’s Darren Cameron serves on the present councillor, independent Amanda Duncan-Strelec is a former mayor and Greens candidate Eli Davern is a former youth mayor of the city.
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