Federal Election: Greens voters moving to regional seats

Regional migration will undoubtedly impact the upcoming federal election, but has this been happening since before Covid?

City slickers moving to Australia’s regions in a post-pandemic exodus could change the outcome of the upcoming federal election, as voters from the inner suburbs take their voting preferences to regional electorates.

Deakin University politics expert Geoff Robinson said the 2020-22 pandemic urban-to-rural population drift entrenched demographic shifts that have already been in motion.

Bec Covington and partner Shaun Byrne at their off-grid home near Castlemaine, Victoria. Picture: Supplied

“Ballarat and Bendigo (federal electorates) are two good examples. As recently as the early 2000s, they were considered marginal electorates. Now, they’re both safe for Labor,” Dr Robinson said.

HR worker Bec Covington and her partner Shaun Byrne moved from the inner Melbourne suburb of Northcote 12 months ago to Castlemaine, in the safe Labor seat of Bendigo.

They now live in an off-grid sustainable home adjacent to a bush block, while enjoying the perks of working from home.

Ms Covington said there is a strong community of people who have moved from Melbourne’s northern suburbs to the Bendigo shire region, all representing a diverse employment background.

In the past she has predominantly voted for the Greens party.

And while she hasn’t made up her mind just yet, Ms Covington will be looking closely at what the independent candidates for the area, and what they will be offering at the election.

“When you look at the Bendigo area, it’s a pretty safe Labor seat. It was definitely a drawcard for us,” Ms Covington said.

Victoria’s federal electorate boundaries have been redistributed since the 2019 election, with both Mallee and Wannon soaking up neighbouring territory.

Regional areas such as Castlemaine in the seat of Bendigo have experienced an influx of people from metro regions. How will this effect the result of the upcoming federal election?

Many Melburnians shifted from the state capital to the Surf Coast during the 2020-21 lockdowns, with Torquay’s expanding at breakneck speed.

“Wannon now extends from the state border right into the heart of the Surf Coast,” Dr Robinson said.

“Picking up some of the Surf Coast will help the Labor vote, but you’d still expect Wannon to stay pretty safe for the Coalition.”

McEwen, covering territory that straddles Melbourne’s northern suburban boundary and central Victorian pastures, has had several visits by Prime Minister Scott Morrison in recent months.

But Dr Robinson says the seat held by Labor MP Rob Mitchell remains relatively safe for the ALP.

“McEwen has gone from being a half-rural, half-urban seat to a majority urban seat and that has favoured Labor,” he said.