Federal election 2025: Victoria’s senate options

Victorian voters have dozens of Senate options on May 3, but experts say only a small handful are in with a chance. See the potential candidates here.

Victoria is set to elect a new senator, with political experts saying the electoral roulette wheel was likely to land on a minor party candidate for the eclectic sixth seat.

Every state has six seats open to election on May 3, with five of Victoria’s Senate positions highly likely to go to incumbents — Labor Party senators Raf Ciccone and Jess Walsh; Liberal Party senators Jane Hume and James Paterson and Greens senator Steph Hodgins-May.

The final seat is currently occupied by independent senator David Van, who was expelled by the Liberal Party in 2023 over assault allegations to sit on the crossbench.

Senator Raff Ciccone and baby boy in the Senate at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: Martin Ollman

Senator Jane Hume. Picture: Martin Ollman

While Senator Van is running for re-election, he is placed in the ‘ungrouped’ Senate ballot section, which makes re-election almost impossible, opening up a spot for a newcomer.

Monash University political scientist Zareh Ghazarian said Victoria had a long history of electing minor party candidates for the sixth Senate seat.

“One of the changes in the minor party senators has been the shift away from the Democrats with their range of policy issues and their self-described motto of ‘Keeping the Bastards Honest’ to the election of senators with single-issue agendas,” Dr Ghazarian said.

“There was Family First in the 2000s, the Ricky Muir with his Motoring Enthusiasts Party, then Derryn Hinch, John Madigan with Democratic Labour and more recently the United Australia Party won at the 2022 election.”

The contenders for the Victorian Senate.

Dr Ghazarian said based on past electoral results, a minor right-of-centre candidate was most likely to win the sixth seat.

“So Labor and the Coalition will win two seats each, the Greens have a strong Victorian presence and will win that proportion of that left-of-centre vote from Labor, so there’s a right-of-centre vote out there that will drift if the Coalition vote count is down,” he said.

“Based on preference flows and public profile – perhaps Family First or Trumpet of Patriots will win in the event of a weaker major party result. Trumpet of Patriots is hard to miss with the sheer amount of advertising – on billboards, corflutes and so on and Family First have succeeded in the past, but much of it will come down to preference flows.”

Deakin University political expert Geoff Robinson agreed Victoria would again vote three left-of-centre and three right-of-centre senators, with Labor and the Greens likely to receive two and one seat respectively.

“The question with the right-of-centre vote is whether the Coalition vote is strong enough to elect three senators, or the preference flows from the smaller parties heads back to the Coalition,” Dr Robinson said.

“Alternatively, One Nation has been polling higher than previous election cycles. Family First and Trumpet of Patriots have profiles, but it’s less of a lottery than it was when the system of ‘vote 1 above the line’ was in place with up to six (squares) now above the line.”

National Farmers’ Federation president David Jochinke urged voters to be deliberate come polling day.

“I passionately call on voters to understand that every time their pen touches the ballot paper, that vote counts, it’s not just numbers one, two and three. You need to know what all the parties stand for, don’t rush the process. Those final numbers matter as much as the first vote,” Mr Jochinke said.

He said it was too difficult to predict whether a candidate with views unaligned to the farming sector would find themselves in the Senate.

WA Farmers president and NFF vice president John Hassell said voters had to ask themselves whether they supported a candidate’s wishes “to protect everything”, referring to the Albanese Government’s shut-down of the live sheep export trade, or keep food prices affordable.

“WA Greens Senator Jordan Steele-John has been pretty keen to shut down the sheep industry, but every time you attack food production, it puts the price of food up, you can’t have it both ways,” Mr Hassell said.