Federal election 2022: Goulburn Valley could have federal and state independents

The Coalition is working overtime to retain a heartland seat from a strong independent challenge that could create Victorian political history.

The once unthinkable scenario of the ultra-safe seat of Nicholls slipping out of the Coalition’s hands has the Goulburn Valley poised to create a slice of Victorian political history.

A regional area simultaneously being under independent rule in federal and state seats has precedents in NSW.

They were Tony Windsor (New England) and Peter Draper (Tamworth), and Rob Oakeshott (Lyne) and his former staffer Peter Besseling (Port Macquarie), but never before has it happened in Victoria.

Federal Victorian rural seat Indi elected an independent, Cathy McGowan, in 2013 for the first time.

Upon her retirement after two terms, further history was created when an independent replaced an independent with Helen Haines’ success.

But the northeast state seats, Benambra and Ovens Valley, have remained in Coalition hands for the past nine years.

Independents have had a strong presence in the Victorian political landscape, most notably in 1999 when three rural independents, Craig Ingram, Russell Savage and Susan Davies, held the balance of power and backed Labor’s Steve Bracks to form a minority government.

Independent MP for Shepparton Suzanna Sheed. Picture: ZOE PHILLIPS

A mood for change in the Goulburn Valley began in 2014 when Suzanna Sheed was elected.

She has cracked a formula to work with the Andrews Labor government for Shepparton’s benefit and businessman Rob Priestly is hoping to become the region’s first federal independent MP on May 21.

If three visits to Nicholls by Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce to support his candidate Sam Birrell since the election was called is any guide, the Coalition has a monumental battle hanging onto the seat it romped in three years ago.

So what’s changing?

Ross McPherson, executive chairman of a family-owned Shepparton publishing business, said Ms Sheed’s success had been noticed by voters, but Nicholls remained conservative at its core.

“People would say Damian Drum has done a terrific job for us and there is not that residual anger towards the National Party,” he said.

“It’s just a matter of who is going to make a difference and if Labor gets in, is an independent our best shot?

“But the three candidates are all impressive and are all across the water issue which is the one generating all the interest.”

Independent candidate for Nicholls Rob Priestly. Picture: ZOE PHILLIPS

But Ms Sheed said Nicholls was another example of a rural area wanting to do politics differently and not be beholden to a major party’s whims and wishes.

“There is no doubt Rob is in the mix and the (Coalition) parties are very worried,” she said.

“You’ve got to remember the National Party’s heartland is northern NSW and Queensland.

“Their $7.1 billion in regional infrastructure package is not making its way to Victoria as far as I can see.

“The Shepparton bypass is the big ticket item that has been on the agenda for a long time and the business case is sitting on Barnaby Joyce’s desk.

“Whether they come to town with that one or not will be a real indicator how important they think Victorian seats really are.”

Former Indi MP Cathy McGowan and her successor Indi Helen Haines after the 2019 election.

Ms McGowan said Shepparton, Echuca and Seymour were embracing “participatory democracy”.

“Democracy is great to see and people having choice is really good,” she said.

“But we’ve got to really understand what is going on in Indi, Nicholls and Mallee.

“I’m picking up a huge dissatisfaction with governments’ approach to the regions.

“Everywhere I go people are really unhappy with the way regional policy is delivered and they are reacting against the grant driven approach to regional development where you’ve got to put an application in and if you’re not a marginal seat you probably don’t get money.”

Former Gippsland MP Peter McGauran.

Peter McGauran held the federal seat of Gippsland from 1983 to 2008 and had to work with an independent, Mr Ingram, in the state seat of Gippsland East in the latter part of his tenure.

Mr McGauran said “the era of independents has arrived” and Coalition can’t afford a lapse at any point.

“Every local member is potentially at risk regardless of previous voting patterns,” he said.

“Take your eye off local needs and aspirations and you are making yourself very vulnerable.

“There is a higher expectation of local MPs in country areas than ever before.

“There is very little tolerance for party discipline as an excuse for inaction.”