Federal election 2022: Labor wins, Nats hold firm

Scott Morrison says he has left Australia in a stronger position while the make-up of the Coalition has changed dramatically. See our expert analysis.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has conceded defeat in today’s federal election, declaring he would resign as leader at the next Liberal Party meeting.

“(I’ve) always believed in Australians and their judgment and I’ve always been prepared to accept their verdicts and tonight they have delivered their verdict and I congratulate,” Mr Morrison said.

He wished Labor Leader Anthony Albanese and the Labor Party “all the very best”.

“Now there are many votes still to count, that is true. There are many pre-polls and postals (ballots) that will still come in,” he said. “But I believe it’s very important that this country has certainty. I think it’s very important this country can move forward.”

Mr Morrison said he was proud to leave government in a stronger position than when he became Prime Minister in August 2018.

“It’s been a time of great upheaval over the last few years, and it's imposed a heavy price on all Australians,” he said.

Mr Morrison highlighted the Coalition’s record of bringing unemployment down to 3.9 per cent, the lowest level in 48 years, securing Australia’s borders, boosting the nation’s defences, investing in mental health and other essential services.

He also paid respect to regional Australia.

“We’ll never take regional Australians for granted or regional Australia for granted,” he said.

“We know that regional Australia is where the strength and heart of our country is and we will always support regional Australians as a Coalition.”

The make-up of the Coalition has changed dramatically as the Nationals hold firm and the Liberal party loses key seats.

So far sitting Nationals MPs are retaining their seats — from Darren Chester in Gippsland and Anne Webster in Mallee to Barnaby Joyce in New England — whereas the Liberal party has lost seats to Labor, the Greens and independents.

ABC journalist Laura Tingle said the ratio of the Coalition was changing dramatically.

“The ratio of the Liberal Party to the National Party is just changing really, really dramatically as we go through the evening. That is going to completely change the nature of that relationship,” she said.

Earlier in the evening, Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce said early results in regional Australia showed the Coalition faring better than expected.

“I think you’re going to be in for a big surprise,” Mr Joyce told Channel 7. “I think the pollsters have got it wrong again – I think people keep their views to themselves.

“There were two different elections here – the regional Australia election and the urban Australia election.

Mr Joyce said the NSW seat of Hunter, which was held by retiring Labor MP Joel Fitzgibbon, was in play for the Nationals.

“In regional Australia there is a real sense of anger, verging on disconnect, (with voters) saying – ‘don’t give me a Sydney pollster and say it works for Singleton because it doesn’t and I don’t want to hear that.

“(They are saying) ‘I don’t want you to talk about how my jobs are threatened and somehow that’s a moral good. I don’t want to hear you talk about how you have some overarching policy for the betterment of Australia that is actually something that is parochial to an inner-suburban area, doesn’t work for us’.”.

“I have watched this one like a hawk – the fact that the Hunter is in play. Just think about that, Cessnock, the Hunter is in play and it is too close to call. It goes to show you that it is not as one would have thought.

“The fact that in regional areas there’s been swings against the Labor Party. The Labor Party is going to have to have an epiphany and decide who they want – do they want the inner-suburban green votes or do they want regional votes because if they don’t win regional seats they cannot win an election.”

But while Hunter may be in play, Victoria’s most marginal seat has been retained by sitting Labor MP Libby Coker, with Geelong mayor Stephanie Asher conceding earlier tonight.

Other key

REGIONAL MARGINALS

Corangamite: Held by Labor MP Libby Coker on a 1 per cent margin. Challenged by Geelong mayor Stephanie Asher running for the Liberal Party. Covers Geelong’s southern suburbs, Torquay and the Bellarine Peninsula.

Eden Monaro: Once known as Australia’s bellwether electorate, Eden-Monaro lies in the south-east corner of NSW. Labor MP Kristy McBain narrowly retained the seat at a July 2020 by-election with a margin of 0.9 per cent.

Gilmore: The seat covers Nowra, Kiama, Ulladulla and the areas around Jervis Bay. The victory of Labor’s Fiona Phillips at the 2019 election was one of the bright spots for the Shorten campaign on a lacklustre night for the ALP. The Liberal candidate is Andrew Constance, a high-profile NSW Transport Minister.

Hunter: Long serving Labor MP Joel Fitzgibbon is retiring in 2022, after having his margin drastically cut at the 2019 election. Olympic shooting medallist Daniel Repacholi is the Labor Party’s candidate. The National Party’s candidate is James Thomson.

The magic number to win Government tonight is 76, the minimum number of seats needed for majority government following today’s federal election.

Experts expect all eyes to initially be on the urban teal independents, to see if they can knock off enough Liberals to gain the balance of power.

But if the Independents are failing to gain traction, they say the focus will quickly turn to Queensland, where Labor, Pauline Hanson or other independents are trying to break the Coalition’s 23-seat stranglehold on the Sunshine State, which has just 30 Lower House electorates.

If Labor then falls short up north, then the battle it may come down to the wire in South Australia and Western Australia.

CRITICAL QUEENSLAND SEATS

Flynn: Incumbent Nats MP Ken O’Dowd is retiring, after receiving a huge swing in his favour at the 2019 poll, to hold the seat on an 8.7 per cent margin. Callide MP Colin Boyce, who represents the area at a state level for the Coalition is running against Labor candidate Matt Burnett, the current mayor of Gladstone.

Leichardt: High-profile Coalition MP Warren Enstch holds the seat, covering the Cape York Peninsula, on a margin of 4.2 per cent. Both Morrison and Albanese have campaigned hard in the tropical constituency.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA AND WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Boothby: South Australia’s only real red/blue contest. Incumbent Liberal MP Nicolle Flint is retiring on a slender 1.4 per cent margin. A three-cornered contest is possible a teal independent challenge from Jo Dyer in the mix.

Swan/Pearce/Hasluck: Will the popularity of Mark McGowan hold sway over these three Coalition seats covering suburban Perth? At the 2019 election, these three and WA more broadly helped the Morrison Government consolidate its position. All three to watch if it’s a tight race in the east.