Cyclone watch alert issued for NT communities as Tropical Cyclone Fina strengthens
The Bureau of Meteorology is not ruling out the possibility of Tropical Cyclone Fina intensifying to a Category 3, with the system officially declared as a Category 2 on Wednesday afternoon. FREE READ.
UPDATE, Wednesday, November 19, 4.30pm: Tropical Cyclone Fina has reached Category 2 strength.
In its latest advice isued at 4.30pm, the Bureau of Meteorology says TC Fina is expected to turn south towards the northern Top End coast during Thursday.
“Tropical Cyclone Fina has intensified into a category 2 system and started moving eastwards,” the Bureau advised.
“During Thursday it is expected to turn to the south towards the northern coast of the Top End.
“On Friday and Saturday, Fina will take a southwest motion, impacting areas over the northwest coast of the Top End of the Northern Territory.”
As of 4.30pm Wednesday, TC Fina was located 375km north northeast of Darwin and 185km north of Minjilang.
At the time it was moving east at 9km/hr with sustained winds near the centre of 95km/h with wind gusts to 130km/h.
The Bureau’s offical Watch Zone is currently in place for Cape Fourcroy to Milingimbi, including the Tiwi Islands, Cobourg Peninsula and Gunbalanya.
“Gales with damaging wind gusts to 120km/h may develop between Cape Don and Warruwi during Thursday and extend east to Maningrida overnight Thursday. Gales are expected to extend further west to include the Tiwi Islands later Friday,” the Bureau advised.
“Gales may extend further east to Milingimbi if the system takes a track further east.
“Destructive wind gusts to 135km/h may develop between Cape Don and Warruwi as early as late Thursday but more likely during Friday as the system approaches the coast.
“Locally heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding is possible along coastal areas between the Tiwi Islands and Milingimbi from Friday. A Flood Watch is current for areas across the northwest Top End.
“Tides may be higher than normal about the Tiwi Islands and between Cape Hotham and Milingimbi on high tides from early Thursday morning.
“Coastal residents on the Tiwi Islands, and between Cape Hotham and Maningrida are specifically warned of a dangerous storm tide as the cyclone centre crosses the coast during Friday and Saturday. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with damaging waves and dangerous flooding.”
The Bureau is expected to issue its next update by 10.30pm Wednesday.
UPDATE, Wednesday, November 19, 3.30pm: The Bureau of Meteorology is not ruling out the possibility of Tropical Cyclone Fina intensifying to a Category 3 as a flood watch has been issued for the north west coastal rivers.
Tropical Cyclone Fina is expected to intensify to a Category 2 by Wednesday night before taking a turn back toward Tiwi and later Darwin on Thursday.
The system’s coastal crossing is expected either late on Friday or on Saturday, while a Cyclone Watch has already been issued from Cape Don to Milingimbi, including the Tiwi Islands.
Bureau of Meteorology NT senior officer Jude Scott said while initial predictions showed Fina would cross the coast as a Category 2, they could not rule out it intensifying.
“These systems move erratically and there is always a possibility that it may intensify into a Category 3 system as it makes its way toward the coast,” she said.
“It is forecast to intensify into a Cat 2 overnight and so far the expectation is that it will remain a Cat 2 for the coastal crossing but we can’t rule the possibility of a Cat 3.
“With the way the cyclone is moving we’re likely to see the impact in Darwin with rainy and windy days ahead, Saturday will be the main day for the Darwin area but it may come as early as Friday.”
The watch area will extend further south on Thursday, which may then include Darwin, while a warning may be issued for some zones.
Meanwhile, a Flood Watch has been called with Top End catchments wetting up from recent storms with heavy falls expected between the Tiwi Islands and Milingimbi from Friday.
Significant rises in creeks and rivers and flooding is possible throughout the Flood Watch area from late Friday.
The catchments likely to be affected include Finniss River, Tiwi Islands, Adelaide River below Adelaide River Town, Mary River, Wildman River, South Alligator River, East Alligator River and Goomadeer River.
Acting Assistant Commissioner and Regional Controller James O’Brien said despite the cyclone coming earlier than normal all of the northern region local emergency committees are ready.
“We have sent extra police to the Tiwi Islands to support the three local committees to ensure they’re well engaged in making sure the communities are resilient,” he said.
“We have a very well established incident management team and northern regional committee, we’ve been dealing with cyclones for many years and have a very trusted and competent team.
“Be prepared but don’t panic. There is no need to panic at the moment.”
Mr O’Brien said emergency teams are preparing for an “entire range of scenarios” including rail and road cut offs and are prepared to adjust and adapt.
“I think the chance is going to be low however we stand absolutely ready just in case those things do come,” he added.
At this stage, Wayne Snell, chief officer NT Emergency Service, said there are no plans to evacuate anyone from remote communities.
“But that’s a decision that will be made by the incident control room who will consult a whole range of organisations and directly with the local communities,” he said.
When asked about power cuts in Darwin, Mr Snell said from recent history, Category 2 cyclones do tend to impact power essential services.
“The other things that could get impacted is water supply, telecommunications obviously our transport systems and people’s ability to move about freely,” he said
“Until we actually know where it’s going to cross, if it’s going to cross and what the intensity of the impact might be, we probably can’t speculate about how large of an impact that might be.”
Cyclone watch alert issued for parts of NT as TC Fina intensifies
UPDATE, Wednesday, November 19, 12pm: A cyclone watch alert has been issued for northwest Arnhem Land and the Tiwi Islands communities as Tropical Cyclone Fina is now expected to make landfall by Saturday morning.
The watch zone identified for Saturday by the Bureau of Meteorology goes from Cape Don to Milingimbi and includes Tiwi Islands, Minjilang, Warruwi, Maningrida, Gunbalanya, Milikapiti, Pirlangimpi and Wurrumiyanga.
This area may see gale force winds developing within the next 48 hours, most likely from Friday morning, the Bureau advises.
It follows after the Bureau said Tropical Cyclone Fina was expected to turn south towards the northwest Top End coast later on Thursday.
At the moment Darwin remains in the forecast track zone but no alert has been issued.
The cyclone, currently in the Arafura Sea off the north coast, is expected to reach Category 2 intensity during Wednesday.
As at the Bureau’s latest track map update at 9.30am, TC Fina was located 370km north northeast of Darwin and 210km north northwest of Minjilang, moving northeast at 12km/h with sustained winds near the centre of 75km/h with wind gusts to 100km/h.
The Bureau advises gales with damaging wind gusts to 120 km/h may develop between Cape Don and Warruwi during Thursday morning and extend east to Maningrida during Thursday afternoon, extending west to include the Tiwi Islands later Friday.
“Destructive wind gusts to 135km/h may develop between Cape Don and Warruwi late Thursday or early Friday morning as the system approaches the coast,” the Bureau says.
“Locally heavy falls are possible along coastal areas between the Tiwi Islands and Milingimbi from Friday.
“Tides may be higher than normal between Cape Don and Warruwi on high tides from early Thursday morning.”
‘Nervous’ residents in Tiwi brace for cyclone impact
Residents on Tiwi are being urged to start preparing their yards and keep checking community notice boards for updates.
In preparation, schools on the islands will be shut on Friday.
With no cyclone shelters anywhere on the islands, Heidi Dorn, deputy chief executive officer of Tiwi Islands Regional Council, said there were quite a few nervous residents in the community.
Especially as cyclones in the past have usually petered off by the time they hit the islands whereas Tropical Cyclone Fina is expected to bring “destructive” 135km/h winds on Saturday morning.
“There are a lot of nervous residents and kids because they haven’t seen one come through for a very long time,” said Ms Dorn.
“We don’t have any cyclone shelters on Tiwi Islands at all. We have areas where we can congregate in bad weather which being the schools and things like that but no cyclone shelters as such.
“Once we overcome what we’re dealing with at the moment we need to really advocate for some cyclone shelters in this area to help.”
After the fire in Pirlangimpi which levelled a power station in September, residents have been relying on generators for power.
Ms Dorn said people were “running around” making sure there was enough fuel for the generators over the next few days and the council and local leaders have been meeting with emergency services to plan and keep sharing up-to-date information.
“Try and get some drinking water together, making sure you’ve got some non-perishable foods, some canned goods and keeping your family together,” said Ms Dorn
“And thinking about the building that you’re in.
“There’s obviously a fair few vulnerable people in the community so everyone is just conscious of making sure that everyone’s accounted for and what the plan is with vulnerable people if we do get to a bad storm cell stage or storm surges because we are low lying as well.”
With a marine wind warning in place as well, Ms Dorn encouraged people to take the alert seriously and try and save emergency services from being “tied down doing unnecessary rescues” during the cyclone.
“We just want to make sure that the Tiwis aren’t forgotten about if there is disaster relief and things like that,” Ms Dorn added.
“We’re very isolated with emergency services and food and things like that so hopefully we’re not forgotten about if it does go south.”
Category two Tropical Cyclone Fina projected to hit Darwin with destructive winds and surge
UPDATE, Wednesday November 19, 9am: Residents and businesses are being urged to take “immediate measures” to prepare for Tropical Cyclone Fina as the storm gathers pace over Northern Territory coastal waters.
The Bureau of Meteorology issued the cyclone alert at 4.11am on Wednesday, with a tracking map showing the weather system extending east to north of Warruwi in Arnhem Land before it’s forecast to track back towards the Tiwi Islands early on Saturday.
The nation’s earliest tropical cyclone for 12-years, BOM is forecasting destructive and very destructive winds.
At 3.30am Wednesday, TC Fina was located 315km north-northeast of Darwin and 195km north-northwest of Minjilang.
Wind gusts inside the system, which is currently graded Category 1, ranged between 75kmh and 100kmh and it was tracking east northeast at 9km an hour.
“TC Fina is expected to continue moving to the east northeast and intensify to Category 2 by Wednesday night,” BOM said.
“Later on Thursday it should turn to the south then southwest, taking it towards the Northern Territory coast for a potential impact during Friday and Saturday.”
An updated forecast tracking map is expected to be issued at 10.30am.
Senior Meteorologist Miriam Bradbury said uncertainty remained whether or not the system would cross the coast, but urged communities to be vigilant.
“There’s still some uncertainty as to whether or not we will see a coastal crossing with this system,” Ms Bradbury said.
“Over the next few days Tropical Cyclone Fina is expected to continue moving to the east northeast, away from the Northern Territory coast, likely strengthening to Category 2 intensity by around Thursday afternoon or so.
“After that point it is most likely to drop to the south or the southwest back towards the Northern Territory. We may see a coastal crossing sometime over the weekend or into early next week.
“However, there are a range of forecast scenarios where the system might move and how it may develop. This includes the possibility that the system peters out before it reaches the coast or that it moves further east or west and avoids a coastal crossing altogether.
“It’s something that will be monitored very closely by our Tropical Cyclone team over the next few days.”
Ms Bradbury said since Tropical Cyclone data was first collated in 1980-81, the earliest coastal crossing on record was TC Alessia, which formed off the WA coast on November 27, 2013 having earlier crossed the coast as a tropical low on November 24.
She said coastal Top End communities were not expected to be impacted for at least the next few days.
“They’re likely to see showers and thunderstorms across northern parts of the Top End over the next couple of days, with the risk of heavy falls, but Tropical Cyclone Fina is located too far from the coast to have a direct impact on this weather. This is normal build-up season weather,” she said.
“Once we see the risk of gales developing along the Northern Territory coast within the next 48 hours, we’ll issue a Tropical Cyclone watch flagging that imminent risk of impacts.”
NT WorkSafe has warned businesses to make immediate plans to prepare for the cyclone season, including reviewing emergency plans and ensuring workers know what action to take if the cyclone hits populated communities.
Measures include minimising hazards in the workplace, securing materials and equipment on worksites and implementing evacuation procedures.
The BOM urged construction site managers to remove scaffolding, ladders, shoring and formwork, to brace temporary or unfinished structures and secure construction material to prevent uplift.”
For more info www.bom.au.
Category two Tropical Cyclone Fina projected to hit Darwin with destructive winds and surge
UPDATE, TUESDAY, NOV 18, 4pm: The Bureau of Meteorology has shed more light on the potential development and track of the likely first tropical cyclone of the 2025-2026 season – TC Fina.
In a Bureau severe weather update on Tuesday afternoon, meteorologist Miriam Bradbury said the cyclone was likely to develop to the north of the Northern Territory on Thursday.
“We can see it starting to develop now looking at our satellite imagery. We can see quite a lot of cloud and thunderstorm activity wrapping around low pressure system Tropical Low 02U and it’s this system that may intensify to reach Tropical Cyclone status over the next few days,” Ms Bradbury said.
“We’ve already seen quite a lot of rain, showers and storms pushing across the Top End over the last few days. Some of that has been associated with this developing, deepening Tropical Low.”
Ms Bradbury said into Wednesday, the tropical low pressure system was likely to slowly move towards the east.
“The strongest winds that you can see wrapping around this low pressure system and the heaviest rain are likely to be held a little way away from the Northern Territory coast,” she said.
“We are still expecting showers, thunderstorms and some gusty coastal winds over the next few days for the Northern Territory but the heaviest impacts are likely to be closer to the system itself.”
Ms Bradbury said by late Wednesday and into Thursday, the risk of the system becoming a Tropical Cyclone increased.
“Ahead of this risk we have issued a Tropical Cyclone Track Map to give a better indication of how this all may play out,” she said.
“Looking at the track map we have the Northern Territory coastline down the bottom and the likely path of this system marked with timestamps going all the way out to around Friday morning.
“For the next few days we are expecting this system to gradually move east-north-east. At this point in time we are expecting a possible intensification to tropical cyclone strength by around Thursday morning.
“It’s at that time that we would officially name this system as a tropical cyclone, using the name Tropical Cyclone Fina.
“From that point the system may well drop to the south, possibly intensifying to a category two system.”
Once TC Fina develops, Ms Bradbury said there were quite a range of forecast scenarios from Wednesday onwards regarding how the system may develop, how strong it might get, and where it would track.
“Some of those scenarios are expressed in our Tropical Cyclone Track Map,” she said.
She said the grey line moving around the map was the range of forecast tracks.
“This means by the end of the week, the centre of our low pressure system or tropical cyclone could be located in the eastern part of this track map range, or in the western part of this track map range,” she said.
“Exactly where it will be located will determine exactly what impacts we can expect from this system.
“Our tropical cyclone team will be keeping a close eye on this system as it continues to develop.”
Ms Bradbury said regardless, Territorians in the Top End should expect widespread rain and storms in the coming day.
“One way or the other though we are expecting showers, rain and storms to continue for parts of the Top End over the coming days. Rainfall totals are likely to be heaviest closest to the coast with those top totals most likely about the Tiwi Islands and that north west corner including around the Darwin area.”
On Tuesday, an ocean wind warning was issued, with gales expected in the north.
All ships the warning area were urged to send weather reports every three hours to the appropriate channels.
At 3.30pm Tuesday, the system was located 270km north of Darwin and 155km north of Pirlangimpi, moving east northeast at 9km/h with sustained winds near the centre of 55km/h with wind gusts to 85km/h.
UPDATE, TUESDAY, NOV 18, 3pm: Bureau forecasters warn a tropical low near Darwin will likely intensify into Cyclone Fina by Thursday, bringing destructive winds and heavy rain to the Top End.
Bureau Senior Meteorologist Jonathan How said it was unclear what the cyclone’s strength would be when made landfall, but he added regardless of its strength – whether category one or two – it would still bring heavy rains, strong winds and a storm surge.
“The sea surface temperatures are very warm and the conditions are broadly favourable for 02U to intensify,” he said.
Based on the Bureau’s cyclone track map, released Tuesday, Mr How said the Bureau projected 02U to develop into category one strength by 10am Thursday, though “it could be slightly earlier than that”.
He added it would likely develop into a category two by Thursday night, before gradually starting to move back towards the south near Darwin.
“If you look at the map, there’s quite a large grey doughnut that stretches all the way from the eastern Top End over towards Darwin, so it does convey that there is still a broad area where this low could be,” he said.
“At this stage, we’re expecting it to turn towards the south and gradually drift towards south or south west, which does bring it potentially on track to close to Darwin at the weekend, possibly as a category one or category two system.”
He said because the cyclone would need to pass through a great deal of land, its intensity could weaken – but until its strength was properly known, this was still unclear.
“Before it starts to get towards the coast, we can expect to see increased waves, right along the Top End coast, especially exposed areas,” he said.
“The longer it spends over water, we’ll get those bigger waves coming through along the coast, and then we’ll gradually start to see showers and storms increasing around the out edge of the lower cyclone.
“As it starts to move close towards the Darwin coast, that’s when you start to see your heavy rain picking up, your storm surge and then damaging and potentially locally destructive winds.”
There were no tropical cyclone watches at this stage, he said, because the Bureau was not anticipating gale force winds – about 63km/h or more – along the coast within 48 hours.
A tropical cyclone watch or weather warnings could, however, be sent out by Wednesday or Thursday.
Mr How said with each day there was “increasing confidence” of what could be expected, particularly as we reach the weekend.
UPDATE, TUESDAY, NOV 18, 11AM: The Bureau of Meteorology has released its first Tropical Cyclone Forecast track map as the risk of Tropical Low 02U developing into a cyclone continues to increase.
If a cyclone forms, it will be named Tropical Cyclone Fina.
The Bureau has released the map, which shows the system potentially reaching Category 2, as it says Tropical Low 02U is slowly strengthening and expected to reach tropical cyclone strength on Thursday north of the NT.
As at 9.30am Tuesday, the Bureau said the tropical low was located 255 kilometres north northwest of Darwin and 135 kilometres north of Pirlangimpi, with sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
The Bureau reports the system is moving east northeast at 9km/h and slowly strengthening over warm waters.
“It is currently moving to the northeast, taking it away from the Northern Territory,” the Bureau said.
“On Thursday it is likely to reach tropical cyclone strength and start moving south then southwest, taking it towards the Northern Territory coast.”
UPDATE, TUESDAY, NOV 18, 10.30am: The Bureau of Meteorology is reporting an increasing risk of a tropical cyclone near or to the north of the Top End coast in the Northern Territory this week.
As at Tuesday morning, the Bureau’s seven day Tropical Cyclone Outlook lists the chance of Tropical Low 02U developing into a cyclone as moderate (25 per cent) on Tuesday and Wednesday, increasing to high (55 per cent) from Thursday onwards.
“Tropical Low 02U is located northwest of Darwin in the central Timor Sea region and moving slowly to the east northeast,” the Bureau says.
“02U is likely to continue moving slowly on a general east to northeast track in coming days. By late Thursday it is likely to turn to the south then southwest towards the NT’s northern coast.
“Environmental conditions are favourable for development of 02U and the risk the low develops into a tropical cyclone increases as the week progresses.
“Although there remains high variability in model intensity ranges, there is increasing risk that 02U could become a tropical cyclone on Wednesday or Thursday.
“Residents about the western and northern Top End should monitor forecasts for a potential tropical cyclone near the coast this week.”
INITIAL MONDAY, NOV 17: Top End residents are being urged to “keep their eyes peeled” for cyclone warnings this week as the overnight severe thunderstorm could be the start of more perilous tropical weather.
As a tropical low has formed north of the Territory, meteorologists said there is now a high risk of a cyclone building and then moving towards the Top End.
As a result, residents are being urged to watch out for warnings and be prepared.
The latest follows on from last week’s advice that a tropical low might form in the Timor Sea in a few days and as a severe thunderstorm warning was released in the early hours of Monday morning.
The Bureau of Meteorology has said the current tropical low pressure system being experienced could strengthen closer to the weekend and form a tropical cyclone.
Senior meteorologist, Angus Hines, said it was very hard to pinpoint when it could form but said the cyclone risk is “high”.
“As it stands now, we’ve got what we call a high risk which represents 50 per cent chance of a tropical cyclone forming north of the Top End on Friday or during the weekend,” he said.
“At that point there’s a few different scenarios that could unfold but there’s definitely a risk the cyclone could move southward somewhere onto the Top End coastline.”
The cyclone, which would form over water north of the Tiwi Islands, could then move inland towards the islands, East Arnhem Land or towards Darwin meaning residents should be prepared.
“All residents across that northern coast should be aware of this weather situation and just keeping up to date as we learn more about what’s going on,” Mr Hines added.
“It’s potentially the first one of the season so it’s probably been a little while since people were thinking about cyclones.
“So just as a reminder more than anything that tropical cyclone watchers would be the first official warning that might be released if we’re thinking it could affect land.
“Keep your eyes peeled for one of those …. If they do pop up, it’s time to pay attention.”
While it was hard to say how strong a cyclone could form, at this stage, Mr Hines said the chance of it developing beyond a Category 2 is “very low”.
“But as always to watch this space with cyclones because things can change,” he added.
Severe thunderstorms and more rain on the way
In the course of three hours on Monday morning, Charles Point experienced 196mm of rain bringing the 24 hour total of rainfall in the area to 228mm.
Mr Hines said residents there received the most significant rainfall of anywhere in the Territory.
“That’s a lot of rain to come in that space of time,” he said. “That’s really going to pack a punch when it comes down that heavily.”
As the cluster of severe thunderstorms moved in towards Darwin, the rainfall progressively weakened with the next highest being at Wagait Beach with residents experiencing 108mm of rainfall.
Fannie Bay in Darwin was third with 53mm while Darwin City witnessed a measly 30mm.
While severe thunderstorm warnings are not unusual in the Territory at this time of year, Mr Hines said it does take a “fair load of rain” for a warning to be issued in the NT.
Over the few days, there might be more rain on the way as many coastal areas are “ripe for rainfall”.
“There’s definitely a chance particularly today and tomorrow that we could see some more thunderstorms bubble up and bring some more pockets of heavy rainfall,” Mr Hines said.
You can stay up to date with the latest tropical low/tropical cyclone information via Tropical cyclone forecast here.
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Originally published as Cyclone watch alert issued for NT communities as Tropical Cyclone Fina strengthens
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