What latest forecasts say about sheep numbers

Drops in wool production in Victoria and WA will drag down the national volume this financial year, according to new predictions.

Drops in wool production in Victoria and Western Australia will drag down the national volume this financial year, according to the latest industry predictions released today.

The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee released its estimates for flock size and wool production. It expects the 2023-24 volume to be down 1.1 per cent to 324 million kilograms, with Victoria and WA failing to maintain previous levels.

It’s the third year in a row where wool production has been around this level, albeit rising slightly last year to 328 million kilograms.

And the flock size, which sat at 71.6 million sheep shorn in 2021-22, is predicted to be only marginally higher this financial year at 72.1 million.

In a state-by-state breakdown, NSW will remain the biggest wool-producing state this financial year, with forecasts of a volume of 123.6 million kilograms, a rise of 3.9 per cent year-on-year.

In contrast, the second-biggest wool-producing state – Victoria – should see volumes fall to 64.7 million kilograms, a dip of 7.6 per cent compared to the past financial year.

Challenges in Western Australia, including the dry season and the phasing out of the live export trade, have analysts predicting a 6.2 per cent fall in wool production to 56.9 million tonnes, edging it back to fourth place in the list of wool-producing states.

Third place is now held by South Australia, which is expected to produce 57.7 million kilograms this financial year.

Forecasting committee chairman Stephen Hill said producers in most states were wary of carrying excess stock if the season deteriorated.

“The timing of any hotter and drier weather will impact sheep producers decisions to sell or retain stock going into summer,” Mr Hill said.

Wool production has stalled and so has the flock size.

“The favourable conditions for sheep and wool production evident in autumn carried forward to the end of the 2022-23 season,” Mr Hill said.

“Abundant pasture availability in key wool producing regions maintained average cut per head at historically high levels in most states.”
The average cut per head on a national basis in the past financial year was 4.59kg greasy.

Meanwhile, the wool market has continued on a cheaper trend this week as softer competition hit prices.

The benchmark Eastern Market Indicator fell 13c/kg to close at 1163c/kg with the pass-in rate at Melbourne sale of 11.1 per cent for almost 23,000 bales offered.

About 40,000 bales are rostered to be sold next week.