Liberal leader Sussan Ley’s greatest challenges will come from within her party, not from Labor
The Liberals face more pain getting back to an election win, with many saying Sussan Ley is up against party room challenges including Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price’s future.
Getting the Liberals into an election-winning position against an ascendant Labor will be a herculean task, but all signs point to the greatest challenges for leader Sussan Ley coming from within.
The finalisation of a new Coalition agreement between the Liberals and Nationals followed by the swift announcement of a fresh-faced front bench has drawn a line under the drama of the last few weeks.
But inside the party room, few consider the Liberals’ woes resolved.
Chief among the issues many MPs expect to trouble Ms Ley’s tenure as leader is when – not if – Northern Territory Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price mounts a bid to become the party’s deputy.
“Nearly everyone thinks (Ms Price) resigns from her portfolio within six to twelve months,” one Liberal MP says.
They say a core problem for Ms Price is whether the Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory will preselect her as their senate candidate for 2028.
The CLP is furious at Ms Price’s defection from the Nationals to the Liberal Party room, and it’s believed they are seriously considering dumping her at the next election.
“They don’t want to preselect her,” the Liberal says.
“She needs a lower house seat somewhere around the country to be saved, or to become (Liberal) deputy leader.
“But the only way to become deputy leader is to overthrow the leader.”
Ms Price stunned many colleagues when mere hours after being tapped to sit in the outer shadow ministry as defence industry and personnel spokeswoman, she publicly admitted to being unhappy with the position.
“I’m not going to lie and say that I’m not disappointed that I’m not in cabinet, but I did say when I decided to move to the Liberal Party room that as part of the Coalition we need to build and that I would be taking whatever position I am given seriously because we need to take the fight up to Labor,” she told Sky host Peta Credlin on Wednesday night.
Supporters of the outspoken Northern Territory Senator say they’re hopeful Ms Price will see the role for the opportunity it is, noting many Liberals did not get any position at all.
“I think Jacinta can contribute a lot to our party room,” one Liberal says.
There’s consensus within the Liberal Party room Ms Ley’s position as leader is absolutely assured for at least next 12 months.
From there, opinions diverge greatly.
Ms Ley’s supporters – the remnants of former prime minister Scott Morrison’s centre right faction, the majority of the party’s moderate ranks and some factionless free agents – see no pathway for Mr Taylor to challenge the party’s first female leader before she’s even had a chance to face an election.
Mr Taylor’s backers in the Right faction are divided.
Some believe, or rather hope, Ms Ley’s performance will be her own undoing.
The thinking goes if the polls are bad and Ms Ley is unable to get policy and political runs on the board within the first year to 18 months of the term, a few of her own supporters will move against her.
Others speculate a proxy for Mr Taylor, potentially one of the Liberals demoted by Ms Ley, will simply move to spill the leadership, allowing challengers to step into the empty chair.
But the Liberals who believe a challenge against Ms Ley is likely this term are in the minority.
One Liberal MP who supported Mr Taylor in the post-election leadership ballot says they had “accepted the loss” and were “not interested” in participating in the destabilisation of Ms Ley for the sake of installing their preferred candidate.
“Going down that path is a recipe for even more pain next election,” they say.
Another Liberal MP speculated that of the senior figures in the Right faction installed in prominent shadow cabinet roles, not enough would be willing to quit their positions to back Mr Taylor having another tilt.
They say it’s “hard to see” the likes of newly appointed foreign affairs spokeswoman Michaelia Cash, finance spokesman James Paterson and home affairs spokesman Andrew Hastie all walk away from their highly sought-after gigs on the “chance” of installing Mr Taylor to the top job.
The immediate challenges for Ms Ley are not directly about retaining the leadership, but steering the fractured Coalition party room through an election policy post-mortem.
The commitment to net zero emissions by 2050 being the most fraught of these.
With Nationals backbenchers Matt Canavan and Barnaby Joyce openly vowing to campaign against the policy, and a rump of Liberals who would be equally happy to see the party room curtail its pledge in some way, a bruising debate on climate is inevitable.
Ms Ley has signalled a willingness to entertain this with carefully chosen words around the need for Australia to reduce its emissions, but not at “any cost”.
How the opposition will approach the energy transition has already been partially decided before MPs and Senators even set foot on the floor of the parliament this term thanks to the “in principle” agreement to pursue nuclear energy as per one of the Nationals’ four Coalition agreement-contingent policy demands.
“Net zero is going to get ugly real quick,” one Liberal MP says.
They say if the Labor Party really wanted to cause some “chaos” it would “put up something symbolic on net zero in the House (of Representatives) and make it go to a vote”.
“Then watch all the people from the Coalition start crossing the floor, before the issue has even come through party room,” the MP says.
The policy reckoning will be “brutal, but necessary” says a moderate Liberal who is confident the party will settle on a pro-net zero policy that “reflects” Australians’ view on the issue.
“It’s existential for us, if we don’t,” they say.
While they may not be able to agree on net zero, after two weeks of leadership ballots a bruising temporary split and bitter infighting, most Nationals and Liberals agree on one thing.
“We have got to stop talking about ourselves,” a Nationals MP says.
A fellow Liberal is more blunt: “we just have to shut up for a while”.
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