Future of farming: Call to action for Australian agriculture

What could Australian farming look like by 2050? A new report has outlined four scenarios as a “call to action” for industry.

What could Australian farming look like in the year 2050?

If industry embraces technology and invests in climate adaptation strategies, then regional Australia could transform into a productive utopia, with a rise in farm productivity and a booming, skilled workforce.

But the pendulum could swing the other way, with the sector suffering a loss of productivity,

forcing some farmers to move to more arable land in order to continue farming.

That’s according to the CSIRO’s Ag2050 Scenarios report, published Tuesday, which outlines four evidence-based scenarios for the future of Australian agriculture.

CSIRO’s Ag2050 lead Rose Roche said a central theme to the research was the interest both government and industry had in what concessions agriculture will need to make in future, in the face of a changing climate.

“What was interesting about the work was it really focused in on the those things we can control,” Dr Roche said.

“In the past 20 years we’ve seen farmers have been able to adapt to climate change, but have sacrificed farm profit to do so.”

Dr Roche said climate adaptation was one of the key drivers of the scenarios, with some scenarios positioned as a reactive approach to climate change compared to being passive.

“The scenarios show the trade-off, for example in technology and innovation and whether or not we have co-ordinated Australian tech, or are tech takers from overseas, and labour access and the trade-off between having an innovative engaged workforce,” Dr Roche said. “Australian farmers have dealt with these variable environments, and volatile trade markets, for a long time. That innovative, adaptable thinking is really at the core of agriculture.”

So, how might Aussie ag look in another 25 years? Take a look:

SCENARIO ONE: REGIONAL AG CAPITAL

This is the result of Australian farms focusing on optimising viable land for new, intensified and transformative food production methods.

That would lead to concentrated regional centres for multiple industries, as varied career pathways would draw more people to live and work in those areas.

But it depends on towns adopting agtech and as some regional cities boom, other towns without growing agtech could decline or strugglein the transition.

CSIRO's Futures’ Agriculture and Food Leader Katherine Wynn said the decline in farming profitability should be a “stark warning sign” for industry. PICTURE: Supplied.

SCENARIO TWO: LANDSCAPE STEWARDSHIP

This would see the use of land to support energy transition, through carbon capture and the restoration of environment as a national priority. Farming systems are productive and resilient, as farmers have taken advantage of diverse income streams.

Farming systems could also adapt non-arable and marginal land for growing biofuel feedstocks, sequestering carbon, agritourism, and renewable energy production.

SCENARIO THREE: CLIMATE SURVIVAL

The agricultural sector could be forced to focus on survival, rather than thriving.

Producers may need to relocate, adapt and diversifying their farming systems to offset the effect of climate change, particularly to maintain productivity. This could include relocating to less distaster-prone regions, and diversifying their production and business activities.

SCENARIO FOUR: SYSTEM DECLINE

Reaching a tipping point, Australia’s agriculture sector could face the economic and environmental consequences of extreme weather events and biosecurity outbreaks.

With only small advances in agritech, many farm businesses could struggle to maintain a profit.

A lack of strong action could see climate change affect yield, nutritional quality, and productivity rates on farms, while declining soil and water health could force some farmers to shift their farms to remaining arable land, while other focus on getting what they can out of their land.

CSIRO's Ag2050 Scenarios report outlines four possible outcomes for Australian farming by 205. PICTURE: Supplied.

The report is the first phase of the CSIRO’s Ag2050 program, which explores strategies to support a productive, resilient, and sustainable agricultural future.