Teal independents prove they’re not one-hit wonders as Coalition fails to reclaim lost seats of 2022
The independent wave that shocked Australia in the 2022 election has held its own, with the Liberals failing to scrape back the seats they previously lost to teal candidates.
The teal wave that swept the nation in 2022 has maintained its grip, with the Coalition failing to win back critical heartland seats they squandered in the last election.
However, it was not the whitewash result of the previous election, with many seats not called until late into the night.
In Sydney electorates, teals Zali Steggall, Allegra Spender, Nicolette Boele and Sophie Scamps all retained their seats against challengers — despite the Liberals touting early confidence they would win back their lost land.
The prospect of a Labor minority government was quickly dropped after the descent of the Greens in the Lower House – despite the party making strides in the Senate.
The 2025 campaign also saw the introduction of new minor parties including billionaire Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots, grassroots Muslim-backed movements in the wake of the Israel-Palestine conflict, and Labor defector Fatima Payman establishing a new party Australia’s Voice to contest Senate seats.
However, it was a shocker of an evening for most minor parties, including as Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, who failed to make any meaningful impact.
In Victoria, the Liberals failed to reclaim the prized electorate of Kooyong from Dr Monique Ryan although the redraw of electoral boundaries had benefited the seat.
Dr Ryan was leading Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer 54.5 per cent to 45.4 per cent on a two-candidate preferred basis following a campaign with 28.4 per cent counted in seat that was likely to be decided by pre-poll and postal votes.
In the Bayside electorate of Goldstein, where the rise of anti-semitism has been a prominent issue amid the large Jewish community, Zoe Daniel had an early swing against her but was tracking ahead of former MP Tim Wilson 53.8 per cent to 46.2 per cent two candidate preferred in the highly anticipated rematch.
The seat is still yet to be officially called, with an incredibly slim margin between the Teal and Liberal candidates.
In the western Victorian seat of Wannon, senior Liberal Dan Tehan was able to hold onto the blue stronghold despite an early swing towards former radio host Alex Dyson.
It was Mr Dyson’s third election running against Mr Tehan, with his attempts each time breaking records for the number of votes an independent candidate has pulled.
While in the rural seat of Monash, Liberal candidate Mary Aldred was ahead in the three cornered contest between independent Deb Leonard and former Liberal MP turned independent Russell Broadbent.
In NSW, Allegra Spender had a large swing towards her leading 59.8 per cent to 40.2 per cent against Ro Knox on two candidate preferred in the inner-Sydney seat of Wentworth.
In the Northern Beaches seat of Mackellar Sophie Scamps was also ahead of Liberal candidate James Brown in the NSW seats of Mackellar.
All eyes were also on Bradfield following the retirement of senior Liberal Paul Fletcher, where second-time Teal candidate Nicolette Boele was ahead of Liberal Gisele Kapterian.
In the Nationals seat of Cowper on the NSW mid-north coast, Pat Conaghan was slightly behind ahead of independent Carolyn Heise but they remained confident.
In Queensland, Labor had been concerned that Dickson Teal candidate Ellie Smith would take votes away from Ali France as they pumped resources into Peter Dutton’s own electorate – the state’s most marginal.
The polls had just closed in WA meaning it was too early to tell if Kate Chaney would hold onto the marginal electorate of Curtin, which she held on a slim 1.3 per cent, against Liberal Tom White.
Climate 200, the fundraising arm founded by businessman Simon Holmes a Court, was set to funnel millions of dollars across the campaigns of 35 independent candidates at this year’s election.
One in four lower house seats had a community-backed independent, with the fundraising body supporting eight incumbents, six second or third time challengers, and 20 first time challengers across all states and territories.
More than half of the candidates were contesting Coalition-held seats, with five running against Labor MPs, three against Nationals MPs and three against other independents.
This was significantly more than the 23 independent campaigns the fundraising arm supported at the 2022 election, where almost half were successful after running on platforms calling for greater climate action and integrity in the parliament.
The Teal shockwave at the 2022 election female independents booting six Liberal male MPs in traditional blue-ribbon conservative seats out of the parliament.
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