Must-win seats Labor needs to claim victory
The election could come down to a seat-by-seat fight with Labor facing a massive task if the polls tighten ahead of election day.
Polls are showing Labor headed for a landslide victory but if the figures narrow, the party will have to fight for every seat.
Ahead of the federal election being called, Labor had a two-party preferred lead of up to 10 points (55 per cent to 45 per cent), according to an Ipsos poll taken just after the delivery of the federal budget.
Newspoll also put Labor ahead (54:46) — a lead of eight points — but the most recent survey revealed on day one of the election campaign, showed this had narrowed to 53:47.
Australia Institute executive director Ben Oquist said if the 10-point lead was accurate, this would mean Labor would win the election in a landslide, and it would likely produce surprise results in seats that pollsters were probably not even looking at.
“There would be enough of a swing to secure a Labor victory whatever happens at a seat-by-seat level,” Mr Oquist told news.com.au.
“A result of 55 per cent would be sufficient even if some seats don’t do as well as others.”
However, if Labor’s lead has indeed narrowed, the result would come down to the result in certain seats.
“If it tightens the seat count required would be hard for either side to get to a majority, therefore who forms government could be in the hands of the cross bench,” he said.
Mr Oquist said this scenario would come into play if Labor’s vote got down to around 52 or 53 per cent, which is possible.
“Most people think the polls will tighten from here,” he said.
Must-win seats for Labor
In a seat-by-seat scenario, which is what helped Prime Minister Scott Morrison claim victory in 2019, Mr Oquist said Labor would need to keep the 69 notional seats it has, plus add another seven seats to form government with 76 of the 151 seats available.
These seven seats are not easy to identify, although there are vulnerable seats scattered across the country.
“In this election in particular there are important seats in every state,” Mr Oquist said.
“I think Tasmania will be more important than Queensland as there are very few seats for Labor to pick up in Queensland and they will need big swings.”
Mr Oquist says seats Labor would be hoping to pick up include Chisholm in Victoria, which is held by Liberal MP Gladys Liu on a tiny margin of 0.57 per cent, News Corp data shows.
In Western Australia, the former attorney-general Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce is up for grabs, as is the marginal seat of Swan in southern Perth.
In New South Wales, Mr Oquist said Labor would be looking at the diverse Sydney inner west electorate of Reid, currently held by Liberal MP Fiona Martin on a margin of 3.18 per cent. Dr Martin made headlines this year as one of four MPs who voted against the government’s religious discrimination bill in order to protect trans students against discrimination.
Labor would also have a go at marginal seats Braddon and Bass in Tasmania held by 3.09 per cent and 0.41 per cent respectively.
It would be hopeful for a win in Brisbane in Queensland, which is held by LNP member Trevor Evans on a margin of 4.92 per cent.
The Queensland seat of Longman, which is held by the Liberal Party on a margin of 3.28 per cent, could also be a possibility, although Mr Oquist believes this seat would be difficult for Labor to secure.
Polling is also showing there’s potential in the South Australian seat of Boothby, which former Liberal MP Nicolle Flint is vacating amid claims she was harassed by GetUp, Labor and the unions.
Boothby is held on a slim margin of 1.38 per cent, with Australia Institute polling shows it could be a “real potential Labor gain”, with Labor ahead on the two-party-preferred vote, 57 to 43 per cent.
“In the past Labor hoped to gain Boothby but never got close, our analysis shows it is very much in play now,” Mr Oquist said.
He said this is partly due to the “honeymoon effect” of the popular new state Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas.
Labor may even have a chance of picking up the safe seat of Sturt, also in South Australia, held by Liberal MP James Stevens on a 6.87 per cent margin.
The Australia Institute poll, taken after the delivery of the federal budget, suggests support for Labor at 52 per cent in Sturt, with the Liberals on 48 per cent.
“If Sturt is really in play then that would be a massive swing and likely landslide Labor victory,” Mr Oquist said.
Coalition may lose its majority
When it comes to the Coalition, it can’t afford to lose any of its 76 seats, otherwise it risks being in minority government.
Mr Oquist said independents were putting pressure on the Coalition in seats such as Wentworth, Goldstein, North Sydney and possibly even Curtin, which is traditionally a blue ribbon seat.
“Should they lose any of those and not pick up any seats from Labor then they will go into minority government,” he said.
The Coalition will also be targeting the marginal seat of Gilmore in NSW, and hoping to wrest Lyons in Tasmania away from Labor, which holds it on a 5.18 per cent margin.
“If the polls do tighten, you would have to say a minority parliament or balance of power parliament is a distinct possibility,” Mr Oquist said.
“The seat count would be hard for either side to get to a majority and therefore who forms government will be in the hands of the crossbench.”
Smaller states could play a key role
While traditionally there is a lot of discussion about the importance of seats in Queensland, Mr Oquist said the reality this year was other states were just as important.
“Even the smaller states of Tasmania and South Australia are going to play a key role,” he said.
Mr Oquist said the federal elections were generally quite tight and even former Labor prime minister Bob Hawke’s landslide victory was won with a 53 per cent two-party preferred result. Kevin Rudd’s victory was also off the back of a 52 per cent result.
Originally published as Must-win seats Labor needs to claim victory
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