Susie O’Brien: Bill Shorten promised too much
Bill Shorten’s lifelong dream of leading the country is in tatters. But how did he and Labor get it so wrong? The answer is simple, writes Susie O’Brien.
What the hell just happened? How did Labor lose the unlosable election?
A man I’ve always felt was little more than a bumbling schoolboy has just been elected PM in his own right.
But Scott Morrison didn’t win the election. Bill Shorten lost it. Labor tried to do too much. Promised too much. Offered too much.
Shorten’s lifelong dream of leading the country is in tatters and he’s already said he won’t contest the leadership.
He wouldn’t get it anyway — losing two elections in a row guarantees this.
All the polling pointed to a Labor landslide. Before the election, people were saying the Liberals hadn’t done enough to justify another term.
They’d spent too much time switching leaders, didn’t care enough about climate change, and were too hard-line on immigration.
In the end, none of that mattered because Labor didn’t make a strong enough case for change.
Shorten headed up a disciplined, experienced team, but didn’t have the personal pull he needed to convince swinging votes to take a punt on Labor. And there were other problems.
Voters didn’t understand how Labor tax policy changing the rules on franking credits and negative gearing would affect them. Retirees in Queensland were scared off.
Another big clanger was the open chequebook policy to address climate change.
Although that appealed to younger votes, it was great ammunition for the Liberals.
Former Greens leader Bob Brown says “greed” won the election, but he’s wrong. Uncertainty and pragmatism lost Labor the election. People didn’t vote for the Liberals because they thought they would get more money in their pockets. Rather, they didn’t vote for Labor because they didn’t trust them with the economy. It’s the old line the Coalition trots out year after year, and this time there was enough reason for it to stick.
Morrison deserves credit for adhering to this simple but effective message day after day. He ran a presidential-style campaign, playing up his likeable “daggy dad” persona and minimising his hard line role in keeping refugees out as immigration minister.
A key part of his success was ensuring that attack dogs like Peter Dutton weren’t off the leash on the national stage. Dutton’s early faux-pas — accusing his Labor opponent Ali France of using her disability as an excuse not to live in the electorate — was forgotten by election day.
Other liabilities, like Barnaby Joyce, kept out of sight, and Abbott was too busy in his own seat to make mischief for Morrison.
There are other lessons too. Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party’s poor performance showed $60 million can buy you volunteers and billboards, but doesn’t buy you votes.
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Pauline Hanson and One Nation also polled badly, as electors stuck by tried and true Liberal and Nationals rather than renegade firebrands with objectionable views and dodgy private lives. In the end all these parties did was take votes away from Labor in Queensland.
Shorten wished he could have done it for Bob Hawke. I’m sure the party faithful thought their vote would be buoyed by sentiment after Hawke’s passing, but it clearly had no impact.
ScoMo is being hailed as a miracle worker and Shorten’s cancelling the removal truck to Canberra. What a difference a day makes.
Originally published as Susie O’Brien: Bill Shorten promised too much
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