Key moment reveals Labor leader Anthony Albanese can win May 21 election

The start of Anthony Albanese’s election campaign was marred by awkward blunders. But a key moment this week proves you can’t underestimate him.

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’d know that Labor leader Anthony Albanese botched his first week of campaigning.

But this week – before Mr Albanese’s shock Covid diagnosis on Thursday evening threw a spanner in the works – something unexpected happened that marked a turning point in the race to the polls.

And it proved Prime Minister Scott Morrison can’t afford to underestimate his opponent.

At his very first appearance after the leaders’ so-called Easter “truce”, Mr Albanese came out swinging against his rival – and he hasn’t stopped since.

In fact, after a somewhat deflated start, reporters covering the campaign saw a very different Anthony Albanese this week.

His body language has radically shifted. His press conferences are much more fiery, bold and passionate. And he’s putting on a far more polished, poised and confident performance, culminating in his much-needed victory at the first debate of the campaign in Brisbane on Wednesday.

In other words, Albo seems to be hitting his stride – and anyone who may have been tempted to write him off should think twice before underestimating him.

It began on Monday with an increase in personal attacks against the PM, who was accused of an unwelcome “pattern of behaviour” of cutting and running when Aussies needed him the most, “whether it be bushfires, floods or the pandemic”.

Labor leader Anthony Albanese came out swinging on Monday – and hasn’t stopped. Picture: Toby Zerna

That marked the start of Albo’s pivot into attack mode, which continued on Tuesday when he repeatedly – at least six times, in fact – accused Mr Morrison of running a “scare campaign” against Labor’s energy policies.

The intensity rolled into Wednesday, when the would-be PM launched into a heartfelt, four-minute spray about Australia’s aged care “crisis”.

That evening, he took some by surprise by claiming a narrow win at the first leaders’ debate of the campaign – after referring to his opponent simply as “Scott” all night in a subtle power move.

And the newly reinvigorated Albo was on display again on Thursday, when he lashed the Morrison Government’s “failure” in preventing China’s security pact with the Solomon Islands, and warned of more “aggression” to come from Beijing.

Deakin University political expert and analyst Dr Geoffrey Robinson told news.com.au he believed things had “improved” for Albo in week two, and that he had what it takes to win on May 21.

“Obviously things had to improve for him after the first week, and he was able to turn back the focus to the areas of strength for Labor, and start attacking the government,” he said.

“We saw that performance in Wednesday’s debate, which focused on standard Labor stuff like aged care and the NDIS.

“There has also been a continued effort to build up Albo as a personality.”

Dr Robinson said Mr Albanese had seemed to find his groove this week, and that the change had been obvious.

“His appearances are more focused, tighter, and he’s staying on message,” he explained.

“He will be trying to stay relentlessly on message but also to try and stay positive, because overly negative Opposition leaders are not popular … people want an Opposition leader who seems positive and upbeat and keeps their policy focus strong.”

Dr Robinson said Mr Albanese’s refusal to be drawn into controversies surrounding the Coalition – such as the trans issue and Mr Morrison telling a mum whose young son has autism that he was “blessed” to have children without disabilities – was a smart tactic.

“He’s let those issues run without necessarily trying to politicise them by directly getting involved. It’s a disciplined strategy,” he said.

“He seems a bit more confident and focused and to be getting into the stride of the campaign.

Some politicians like Morrison are natural campaigners, but I think sometimes that’s a sign of a not necessarily good government.

Anthony Albanese took some by surprise by winning Wednesday’s debate against Scott Morrison. Picture: Toby Zerna – Pool/Getty Images

“My opinion is that’s not necessarily Albo’s style, he’s good with people on a one-on-one basis which you can see in his popularity within his own electorate, but he’s not a natural campaigner in the sense that Morrison is.”

But while Labor noticeably moved into attack mode in week two after a relatively soft initial approach, Mr Albanese has so far left the majority of the aggression and criticism of Scott Morrison to his colleagues, most notably Shadow Treasurer Jim Chalmers – a strategic move which was no doubt deliberate, according to Dr Robinson.

“Albanese doesn’t want to come across as being too negative,” he said, and explained that having a variety of voices on the campaign trail was also another tactic designed to appeal to a greater number of voters.

“(The Coalition’s) Josh Frydenberg appeals to moderates while Peter Dutton appeals more to the hardliners who might wander off to One Nation or Clive Palmer, so they want to have people speaking who appeal to different parts of their base – and (Labor’s) Jim Chalmers has a more technocratic style, while Kristina Keneally appeals to suburban mums,” he said.

But Dr Robinson added that while the ALP campaign was much improved, Mr Albanese still needed to be better prepared for tough questions, such as boat turnbacks, which sparked an uncomfortable moment in Wednesday’s debate.

Though he’ll be isolating in his Marrickville home, Mr Albanese won’t be able to avoid tough questions altogether, having committed to remote interviews and press conferences already. And when he emerges, he’ll need to be prepared to be grilled as the campaign gets closer to the pointy end.

“He has to look out for potential minefields down the track, and how to defend his remaining big ticket announcements and make sure they are convincing and add up,” Dr Robinson said.

“His strength is focusing on personal stories which is a strength for Labor leaders generally, but he needs to find a middle ground between being smart and on top of things without coming across as arrogant, over the top and too critical – it’s that sweet spot you want as an Opposition Leader and he’s still struggling a bit to find that.

“I still think he will win narrowly. It will be a tough, grinding fight, but he seems more prepared for that.”

Originally published as Key moment reveals Labor leader Anthony Albanese can win May 21 election