Analyst Tom Connell: How every seat will be called and the key votes to be aware of

Election analyst Tom Connell reveals why the early and late votes will be of real interest as he explains how every seat will be called after polls close.

Election day is nearly upon us and the polls seem pretty well set – after a surge in support Labor is leading the Coalition on the national vote 52-48 on average across major polls. But privately both major parties think this contest will still be tight. So where should you be looking on election night to know which way the contest is going?

As votes come in, keep an eye on what is happening to the primary vote of the two major parties. The Coalition need an improvement from last election when 35.7 per cent of the national vote delivered them only 58 seats. For Labor they barely managed majority government with 32.6 per cent of the vote – a likely change in preference flow this time around means they will need a higher vote if they are to avoid losing seats.

Deep into this campaign, it’s emerging that the further you go out in metropolitan areas, the bigger the swing will be. But the problem for the Liberal Party is some of those outer urban areas also have bigger margins, with Melbourne a good example. We will almost certainly see swings in McEwen (margin 3.8 per cent), Bruce (5.3 per cent), Dunkley (6.8 per cent), Hawke (7.6 per cent) and Gorton (10 per cent). If they all fall it will be game on, but for every seat in which you see a decent swing to the opposition (3 per cent plus) without it changing hands, it’s effectively wasted swing for the coalition.

The Coalition’s swing in several key seats could be enhanced by One Nation. The party managed only 5 per cent at the last election, but current opinion polling has them getting up to 10 per cent. It won’t be enough to win any lower house seats, but the party does best in the outer suburbs meaning their vote there could be more like 15 per cent.

It could be enough perhaps to help tip several seats from Labor to Liberal. And in the senate, it could be enough to get One Nation an extra three senate positions, which would really shake-up the upper house.

The size of the crossbench will be crucial at this election, in particular for the Coalition. It lost a staggering nine seats to Teals and Greens last time, and if can’t claw any of them back, it makes it a very hard path back to government, because only a few of the MPs who ousted Liberals last time would give supply and confidence to Peter Dutton in a minority scenario. There is the prospect of going backwards – with Climate 200 backing repeat candidates on close margins in Bradfield, Cowper, and Wannon. That would be a hammer blow to the opposition’s overall chances.

Sky News Election Analyst Tom Connell.

The Coalition start this election 22 seats behind Labor, so like the Brisbane Lions’ semi-final comeback from 44 points down, its job will be much easier if it doesn’t let the opposition have any wins.

Any seats that go from blue to red will have extra significance on Saturday night. Labor is eyeing off seats in every state except WA (where it already has a stranglehold) so there is not one area to look for here, but it has half a dozen or so seats it feels it can genuinely win from the Liberal Party.

Even if only 2-3 of those actually fall, it will make the mountain too high to climb for the opposition.

Beware the early vote – the first votes that will come in on Saturday night will be small regional booths in Tasmania. In 2022 some Labor insiders panicked when these booths showed no real swing – but of course it turned out the booths (and indeed Tasmania as a state) bucked the national trend.

And equally beware the late vote – prepoll turnout is set to reach a new high, and these bigger booths take longer to count. This means seats can fluctuate dramatically even late in to the night as big booths take longer to count, all adding to the drama as Australians wait to see who will form the next government after May 3.

Originally published as Analyst Tom Connell: How every seat will be called and the key votes to be aware of