Australia summer weather: BOM forecasts ‘unusually warm’ temperatures; reduced rainfall in parts

If you got used to the recent rain, the BOM has warned that things are sure to change and given an indication of how hot summer will be.

If you’ve been getting used to the rain that has drenched parts of Australia in late November then prepare for a change to the weather.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has released the climate outlook for summer and its forecasting an El Nino affected season of higher than average temperatures and lower than average rainfall in some areas.

Put simply: summer is set to be a scorcher.

And that could lead to an increased risk of bushfires, particularly in Australia’s east but in pockets of every state and territory.

“The long range forecast shows warmer days and nights are very likely across Australia this summer… and those can increase the risk of heatwaves,” BOM senior climatologist Dr Lynette Bettio warned.

Despite the rainy weather over the last month, spring has overall been as dry as a plain Cruskit.

Spring rain has been 23 per cent below average. Picture: BOM.

“After a very dry September and October, widespread storms in November lifted the total spring rainfall across parts of northern and eastern Australia.

“But spring has been drier than usual in all states and territories with national rainfall around 23 per cent below average,” said Dr Bettio.

She added that this spring is tracking to be among the 10 driest on record for Tasmania.

Spring temperatures have been above average with most states set to finish in the top 10 warmest on record.

Western Australia could well have had its warmest spring on record, a season which included prolonged heatwaves.

“The recent drier than usual winter and spring for many areas is typical of El Nino and positive Indian Ocean Dipole events,” said Dr Bettio.

Rainfall is set to be lower over summer in the west and north. Picture: BOM.

Over summer El Nino is set to continue, which can impact rainfall and is forecast to lessen the monsoon season across the country’s north.

The positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which has dragged moisture away from Australia towards Africa, should weaken.

The BOM is forecasting that there is a high chance rainfall totals will be lower across most of Western Australia, northern Queensland and the Northern Territory.

Southern Queensland and the southern and eastern states could see average rainfall but above average totals is deemed very unlikely.

Summer days are set to be warm... Picture: BOM.

… as are summer nights. Picture: BOM.

When it comes to summer temperatures essentially there is one prediction: above average heat just about everywhere.

“Almost all areas have an increased chance of unusually warm days, especially in Western Australia and the far north,” said Dr Bettio.

“Large areas have a high chance of unusually warm summer nights. Combined with warm days this can increase the risk of heatwaves.”

A summary of summer. Picture: BOM.

On Thursday, a report from the National Council for Fire & Emergency Services (AFAC) showed large swathes of Queensland, New South Wales and the Northern Territory will be at increased risk of fires over summer, while parts of WA, South Australia, Tasmania, and Victoria will also experience elevated fire danger.

Cyclone season is also upon Australia. The BOM has said that over summer there is likely to be fewer cyclones – but there’s unlikely to be none.

“Historically, at least one tropical cyclone has crossed the Australian coast each season, so northern communities should be prepared,” said Dr Bettio.

Originally published as Australia summer weather: BOM forecasts ‘unusually warm’ temperatures; reduced rainfall in parts