Albo’s narrow path to victory could run through Queensland

Early on Saturday evening as the landslide victory previously forecast for the LNP proved slow to materialise, Labor sources said there were positive lessons the Prime Minister could take.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Photo: Fiona Goodall.

Anthony Albanese’s narrow path to majority government in 2025 could run through Brisbane and Queensland’s Far North, with federal Labor buoyed by the early results of an “energised” state campaign.

Early on Saturday evening as the landslide victory previously forecast for the Liberal National Party proved slow to materialise, multiple Labor sources said there were positive lessons the Prime Minister could take from Premier Steven Miles’ valiant effort to “save the furniture” and stem predicted losses.

But the party’s chances in regional Queensland have been completely dashed in all but Cairns, where Labor will be looking to take the federal seat of Leichardt from the Coalition, where Liberal MP Warren Entsch is retiring.

“This is going better than I had expected,” one federal Labor MP said, chalking it up to Mr Miles’ “impactful” election policies.

“That’s something we need to look to replicate.”

Premier Steven Miles visits the polling booth at New Farm State School and gets stuck into a sausage sandwich with Grace Grace as Election Day gets underway. Pic: Adam Head.

One Queensland federal Liberal MP said it was clear Mr Miles had “energised” young people, and inspired a large presence of Labor volunteers on the polling booth.

Another Liberal said the abortion issue had hurt their state counterparts, and warned it was a “lesson” to the federal party room to remain disciplined and on message in the lead up to election due by May 2025.

Both major parties were positive about early results in Greens-held seats, with the Coalition confident the Liberals’ strong showing in Maiwar in Brisbane’s inner west boded well for Opposition leader Peter Dutton, who will be looking to regain the federal seat of Ryan next year.

Meanwhile Labor sources were closely watching the state seat of South Brisbane, despite Greens MP Amy MacMahon sitting on 40 per cent of the primary vote as of 8pm.

Labor MP Pat Gorman told Sky News the Greens’ had gone from being “progressive” to “aggressive,” suggesting the minor party’s support for more extreme pro-Palestine protests had turned off voters.

But the Greens remained confident they would continue to consolidate their hold on the inner south, which would again translate in the federal seat of Griffith held by the party’s housing spokesman Max Chandler-Mather.

Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather.

Labor only holds five of Queensland’s 30 federal seats, with sources saying the party would be eyeing off the Liberal-held seats of Leichhardt in the state’s Far North, as well as Longman, Bonner and Brisbane in the south east.

Despite being at a high water mark in the state, the federal Coalition views the seats of Blair, held by Labor on 5.23 per cent and also Moreton on 9.09 per cent, as potential 2025 targets.

A three-way contest between the Liberals, Labor and Greens – who are the incumbent – in the federal seat of Brisbane is expected to come down to preference flows.

Any chance of Labor picking up federal seats in central or North Queensland has been completely ruled out, with major population centres all heavily swinging against the party.

Herbert MP Phil Thompson said in Townsville, where Labor was expected to lose all three state seats, the “most important” issue for voters was crime.

Originally published as Albo’s narrow path to victory could run through Queensland