Lower farm values, higher prices on the cards for agriculture

Dry conditions are expected to cause a widespread fall for the gross value of livestock and its products, but export prices are set to rise.

Average farm business profits will fall next year, forecasts show, while agricultural export values are also expected to drop.

The Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics and Sciences June report for agricultural commodities showed livestock and livestock product values were expected to fall in 2025-26 by $0.5bn due to lower-turn-off. Livestock purchase costs were set to rise with predicted higher saleyard prices.

It also showed agricultural production gross value would drop to $90.7bn, the third-highest on record, due to lower livestock and crop export values.

The report expected beef, veal and live cattle value to lower by $0.6bn, sheepmeat and live sheep value would drop by $0.2bn, and wool by $0.3bn.

Agricultural export values would fall by $2.6bn in the next financial year, livestock export volumes will fall by 8 per cent but export prices were set to rise by 1.5 per cent.

The average farm business profit is forecast to fall in 2025–26 to $141,000 driven by lower farm production, but remain above the decade average.

ABARES executive director Dr Jared Greenville said the overall seasonal outlook was positive but expected to cause lower production this year.

“Nationally, an expected fall in crop production in 2025-26 will lead to a $2.1 billion fall in crop value and $0.5 billion reduction in livestock and livestock product values,” he said.

“Australian agricultural exports are expected to be supported by tightening global grain stocks, demand for Australian red meat and a relatively low Australian dollar,” he said.